In the final seconds of a BTC prediction window, the market price lags behind reality. Our signal engine finds that gap — and alerts you before it closes.
In the final 45–120 seconds of a BTC prediction window, the outcome is often already clear from price action. But prediction market odds haven't repriced yet — the crowd is slow. That gap is your opportunity.
Retail algo traders see the same signal — but market makers don't fill large orders near resolution. When bots flood in, liquidity disappears. The edge only exists at human-scale bet sizes: $5–$100 per trade.
When NO is trading at 26¢ and our model says 92% DOWN confidence, you're not betting on BTC — you're buying something worth 74¢ for 26¢. That's mispricing. That's the hedge.
Continuously monitors BTC price action, order flow imbalance (OFI), and momentum in real time.
When model confidence exceeds the threshold and the market price lags, an alert triggers — typically 45–90 seconds before resolution.
Instant message with direction (UP/DOWN), confidence %, current market price, and expected edge magnitude.
You're in control. Size based on confidence, act fast, and let the math work. See sizing guide →
| Market | Window | Total Signals | Win Rate (All) | Win Rate (p≥0.85) | Avg Lead Time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi BTC | 15-minute | 27+ | 85.2% | ~90% | ~2 min | 🟢 Live |
| Polymarket BTC | 5-minute | 1,104 | 74.5% | 92.9% | ~45 sec | 🟢 Live |
| Polymarket BTC | 5-min (gap≥0.25) | 576 | 87.7% | — | ~45 sec | 🟢 Live |
| Kalshi ETH | 15-minute | — | — | — | ~2 min | 🔜 Coming Soon |
Subscribe to one ($19.99) then add the second as a $5/mo add-on. Just $24.99/mo for both signal streams.
Our Bayesian model outputs a probability (p_dir) for each signal. We only alert when p_dir ≥ 0.75. The 92.9% win rate is from signals where p_dir ≥ 0.85 — about 28% of all signals. You'll see the confidence score in every alert so you can decide how hard to lean in.
Via Telegram. After subscribing, you'll be added to a private Telegram channel for your market(s). Alerts fire automatically when the model signals. You'll get: direction (UP/DOWN), confidence %, current market price, and expected edge.
Because market makers on Kalshi and Polymarket don't fill large automated orders near window resolution. When they detect algorithmic patterns, liquidity disappears. The edge only exists at human-scale sizes ($5–$100 per trade). That's actually what protects it. Full explanation →
Yes. These signals are designed for trading BTC UP/DOWN contracts on those platforms. We provide the edge — you execute the trades. Kalshi is available to US users; Polymarket requires a non-US VPN in most states.
Polymarket 5-min fires ~3–8 high-confidence signals per day. Kalshi 15-min fires ~2–5 per day. We filter aggressively — quality over quantity.
Start small — $5–$20 per signal — until you've seen the edge work with your own eyes. Confidence ≥ 0.85 + gap ≥ 25% is your strongest setup. Never bet more than you're comfortable losing on a single trade. Detailed sizing guide →
No. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These are probabilistic signals based on market microstructure. Trade at your own risk and only with capital you can afford to lose.
Yes, cancel anytime through your billing portal. No long-term commitment, no questions asked.