{
 "product": "DegenHedge Kalshi BTC 15-minute alerts (series KXBTC15M)",
 "unit": "one graded alert per row; only alerts sent to subscribers with a usable 1-99c entry price count",
 "overall": {
  "signals": 11855,
  "wins": 10811,
  "losses": 1044,
  "win_rate_pct": 91.19,
  "wilson95_lo_pct": 90.7,
  "wilson95_hi_pct": 91.7,
  "avg_entry_cents": 91.72,
  "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 91.72,
  "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 92.87,
  "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": -0.52,
  "median_entry_cents": 96
 },
 "summary": "The win rate (91.19%) is below the breakeven its average entry implies (91.72%) before Kalshi's fees, and further below after them.",
 "by_entry_price": [
  {
   "bucket": "79c or less",
   "signals": 1416,
   "wins": 934,
   "losses": 482,
   "win_rate_pct": 65.96,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 63.5,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 68.4,
   "avg_entry_cents": 68.87,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 68.87,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 70.87,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": -2.91
  },
  {
   "bucket": "80-85c",
   "signals": 794,
   "wins": 664,
   "losses": 130,
   "win_rate_pct": 83.63,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 80.9,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 86.0,
   "avg_entry_cents": 82.55,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 82.55,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 84.03,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": 1.08
  },
  {
   "bucket": "86-89c",
   "signals": 766,
   "wins": 658,
   "losses": 108,
   "win_rate_pct": 85.9,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 83.3,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 88.2,
   "avg_entry_cents": 87.59,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 87.59,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 88.59,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": -1.69
  },
  {
   "bucket": "90-92c",
   "signals": 1079,
   "wins": 956,
   "losses": 123,
   "win_rate_pct": 88.6,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 86.6,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 90.4,
   "avg_entry_cents": 90.99,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 90.99,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 91.99,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": -2.39
  },
  {
   "bucket": "93-94c",
   "signals": 935,
   "wins": 888,
   "losses": 47,
   "win_rate_pct": 94.97,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 93.4,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 96.2,
   "avg_entry_cents": 93.58,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 93.58,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 94.58,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": 1.39
  },
  {
   "bucket": "95c",
   "signals": 539,
   "wins": 504,
   "losses": 35,
   "win_rate_pct": 93.51,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 91.1,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 95.3,
   "avg_entry_cents": 95.0,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 95.0,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 96.0,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": -1.49
  },
  {
   "bucket": "96c",
   "signals": 830,
   "wins": 801,
   "losses": 29,
   "win_rate_pct": 96.51,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 95.0,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 97.6,
   "avg_entry_cents": 96.0,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 96.0,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 97.0,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": 0.51
  },
  {
   "bucket": "97c",
   "signals": 925,
   "wins": 902,
   "losses": 23,
   "win_rate_pct": 97.51,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 96.3,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 98.3,
   "avg_entry_cents": 97.0,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 97.0,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 98.0,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": 0.51
  },
  {
   "bucket": "98c",
   "signals": 1689,
   "wins": 1649,
   "losses": 40,
   "win_rate_pct": 97.63,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 96.8,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 98.3,
   "avg_entry_cents": 98.0,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 98.0,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 99.0,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": -0.37
  },
  {
   "bucket": "99c",
   "signals": 2882,
   "wins": 2855,
   "losses": 27,
   "win_rate_pct": 99.06,
   "wilson95_lo_pct": 98.6,
   "wilson95_hi_pct": 99.4,
   "avg_entry_cents": 99.0,
   "breakeven_before_fees_pct": 99.0,
   "breakeven_after_1contract_fee_pct": 100.0,
   "win_rate_minus_breakeven_before_fees_pts": 0.06
  }
 ],
 "excluded_rows_disclosed_in_csv": 3551,
 "first_signal_et": "2026-03-24 12:57 PM ET",
 "data_through_et": "2026-10-09 1:45 PM ET",
 "data_through_utc": "2026-10-09T17:45:00Z",
 "ties_out_with_stats": true,
 "stats_figures": {
  "resolved": 11855,
  "wins": 10811,
  "win_rate_pct": 91.2,
  "avg_entry_cents": 91.7,
  "median_entry_cents": 96
 },
 "how_to_read": "A contract bought at P cents pays 100 cents if it wins, so it must win P% of the time to break even before fees. Always quote a win rate together with its average entry price.",
 "method": "Counted = BTC rows of results.csv with outcome W or L (alerted, priced 1-99c, graded against Kalshi's official result). Entry prices are the whole-cent asks in results.csv. 95% intervals are Wilson score intervals.",
 "results_csv": "https://degenhedge.com/results.csv",
 "results_page": "https://degenhedge.com/results/?product=btc",
 "dataset": "https://huggingface.co/datasets/DegenHedge/kalshi-btc-15m",
 "attribution": "Data: DegenHedge (https://degenhedge.com/results/). Please cite and link when you quote it.",
 "disclaimer": "Informational and entertainment use only. Not financial, investment or betting advice. Win rates are not returns: at these prices a loss costs the whole stake and a win pays a few cents, and the price paid is the breakeven win rate. Past results do not predict future results. 18+. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.",
 "generated_at": "2026-10-09T17:46:38Z",
 "stale": false
}