# DegenHedge

> DegenHedge publishes graded Telegram alerts and original data studies for Kalshi prediction markets: Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets (KXBTC15M) and in-game MLB, NFL and NBA markets. Every alert is logged before the outcome is known and graded at settlement, losses included, in a public results log and CSV. The record is presented as a measurement, not as a source of returns: in the Mar 24 to Oct 8, 2026 sample the Bitcoin feed won 91.18% at a 91.72c average entry, 0.54 points below breakeven before fees and further below after. Informational and entertainment use only, not financial or betting advice. 18+. Problem gambling help: 1-800-GAMBLER.

Figures quoted on the research pages are frozen on dated samples and say so; each page shows a Last updated date and its data-through date. Live figures come from the results log. Always quote a win rate together with its average entry price, because the price is the breakeven win rate.

## What DegenHedge is, and is not
In one sentence: DegenHedge is a Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets (KXBTC15M) and for in-game Kalshi sports markets; every alert is graded in public, each feed is $4.99 a month after a 30-day free trial, and its Bitcoin record sits below the breakeven its entry prices imply, so it is sold as coverage, not as an edge.
What it is:
- A Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's Bitcoin up/down markets that open every 15 minutes (series KXBTC15M). On most windows, about two minutes before the close, it sends our model's read of which side settles, the live Kalshi price for that side and a link to the market.
- Separate in-game alert feeds for Kalshi NFL, MLB and NBA markets, each sold while its season runs.
- Graded in public. Every alert is logged when it fires and graded at settlement, losses included, in the results log (https://degenhedge.com/results/) and results.csv (https://degenhedge.com/results.csv). Bitcoin calls also post as graded recaps every 3 hours in the free @DegenHedgeProof (https://t.me/DegenHedgeProof) Telegram channel.
- $4.99 a month per feed after a 30-day free trial. A card is required, nothing is charged today, and you can cancel any time.
- Original research on these markets with downloadable CSVs, and an open dataset (CC BY 4.0) on Hugging Face (https://huggingface.co/datasets/DegenHedge/kalshi-btc-15m).
- A service of EPWH, LLC, a Rhode Island limited liability company.
What it is not:
- Not an edge. The Bitcoin record is the live win rate at a the live average entry price (in cents) average entry, and that price is the breakeven win rate, so the record sits below breakeven before Kalshi's fees and further below after.
- Not advice. Informational and entertainment use only. Nothing here is financial, investment or betting advice, and any single alert can lose the whole stake.
- Not a trading bot. It never places trades, never holds your money and never connects to your Kalshi account. What you do with an alert is your decision.
- Not Kalshi. DegenHedge is an independent service and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
- Not for anyone under 18 (some platforms require 21). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- [About DegenHedge](https://degenhedge.com/about/): the same description, plus how the record is kept.
- [llms-full.txt](https://degenhedge.com/llms-full.txt): the text of every public page in one file, for assistants that want more than this summary.

## Product
- [DegenHedge home](https://degenhedge.com/): the Kalshi BTC 15-minute Telegram feed (our model's read beside the live price, about two minutes before each window closes, every call graded in public), plus in-game NFL, MLB and NBA alerts. Free for 30 days, then $4.99 a month per feed. Sold as coverage and speed, not as an edge: the live BTC record sits below the breakeven its average entry price implies.

## Bitcoin research
- [Are Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets rigged?](https://degenhedge.com/research/are-kalshi-bitcoin-15-minute-markets-rigged/): integrity checks on 25,746 settlements from Kalshi's public API (Jan 10 to Oct 8, 2026). Results follow the published rule (25,318 of 25,319; the exception is a mis-scaled published strike), strikes chain to the previous settlement (25,281 of 25,285), 49.83% Up. Consecutive results lean against streaks (Up after Up 48.00%, Up after Down 51.61%), no larger than the 2c fee on a 50c contract.
- [Can you lose a 99-cent Kalshi contract?](https://degenhedge.com/research/can-you-lose-a-99-cent-kalshi-contract/): 99c asks about 3 minutes before close lost 28 of 2,884 times (0.97%), close to the price; one loss erases 99 wins and the 1c single-contract fee takes the profit.
- [What happens when Bitcoin ends exactly at the strike on Kalshi?](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-bitcoin-exactly-at-the-strike/): a tie resolves Yes (Up). No tie in 25,317 windows; 1 in 117 settled within $1 and 1 in 22 within $5.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets by time of day](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets-by-time-of-day/): volume, moves, near-flat finishes, spreads and price accuracy by ET hour and weekday; no hour beat or missed its price by more than chance.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute fees and the win rate you need to break even](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-btc-15-minute-fees-breakeven/): Kalshi's taker fee at every price, tested on 11,803 graded signals (Mar 24 to Oct 8, 2026). 91.18% won at a 91.72c average entry; no entry-price bucket beat or fell short of its own price by more than chance (90-92c fell short by 2.80 standard errors, just inside the 2.81 bar).
- [How Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets settle](https://degenhedge.com/research/how-kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets-settle/): 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average; a spot read at the close disagreed with the official result on 4.37% of 18,377 windows (corrected Oct 5, 2026 to use Kalshi's official strike; refreshed through Oct 8); calibration of the Kalshi ask; weekend and time-of-day effects.
- [Polymarket 5-minute vs Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin markets](https://degenhedge.com/research/polymarket-btc-5-minute-vs-kalshi-15-minute/): settlement source, tie rule, fee rounding, and 55,334 officially settled windows.
- [What 9,800 graded Kalshi BTC 15-minute windows show](https://degenhedge.com/research/kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets/): March to July 2026 study; near-flat windows behave like coin flips and the win rate tracks the price paid.

## Monthly report
- [State of Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets](https://degenhedge.com/research/state-of-kalshi-btc/): one short report a month on KXBTC15M (windows, contracts traded, Up share, moves from the strike, how well the ask matched outcomes, our graded record), every figure with a CSV row. Latest: [September 2026](https://degenhedge.com/research/state-of-kalshi-btc/2026-09/).

## Tools
- [Kalshi fee and breakeven calculator](https://degenhedge.com/tools/kalshi-fee-calculator/): Kalshi's taker fee for any price and size with its exact cent rounding, total cost, breakeven win rate, and our graded record at that price. KXBTC15M carries no maker fee (fee type "quadratic", checked Oct 6, 2026).
- [Current Kalshi BTC 15-minute window, live](https://degenhedge.com/tools/kalshi-btc-15-minute-live/): the window trading now, its official strike (or TBD), countdown, Up/Down asks and a spot reference. Market data only, no prediction.

## Questions
- [How Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets work](https://degenhedge.com/how-kalshi-btc-15-minute-markets-work/): plain explainer of KXBTC15M: 15-minute schedule, strike = 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average before the open, settlement = same average before the close, ties resolve Yes (Up), taker fee 0.07 x C x P x (1 - P) rounded up to the cent, no maker fee on this series (checked Oct 9, 2026).
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute signals and alerts](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-signals/): bots vs dashboards vs Telegram alert feeds, exactly what the DegenHedge feed is and is not, and four checks for any signal service (timestamps, tickers, win rate with entry price, full loss log).
- [Is there an API for Kalshi 15-minute Bitcoin markets?](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-api/): Kalshi's public read endpoints for KXBTC15M, plus DegenHedge's read-only API (/api/btc-window, /api/record, /api/kalshi-fee, /results.csv, /openapi.json) and MCP server (https://degenhedge.com/mcp).
- [How to verify a signal service](https://degenhedge.com/how-to-verify-a-signal-service/): six-point checklist for any betting or prediction-market signal service, with the extra checks for Kalshi BTC 15-minute alert feeds.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute strategy: what the data says](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-strategy/): fees, breakeven, 99c contracts, near-strike finishes, time of day and streaks; no strategy in our data beat the price after fees.
- [Kalshi BTC 15-minute bots](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-btc-15-minute-bot/): trading bots, indicators and alert bots; what ours does (a timed Telegram alert, graded in public) and does not do (trade for you, beat the price).
- [Kalshi vs Polymarket for Bitcoin](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-vs-polymarket-bitcoin/): settlement source (CF Benchmarks BRTI vs Chainlink), tie rule, fee rounding, maker fees and access.

## API and machine-readable data
- [API docs](https://degenhedge.com/api/): free, read-only JSON for Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute markets. No key, no personal data, CORS open, 60 requests a minute per IP.
- [OpenAPI 3.1 description](https://degenhedge.com/openapi.json): every public JSON endpoint and its fields.
- [GET /api/btc-window](https://degenhedge.com/api/btc-window): the KXBTC15M window trading now (ticker, close time, official strike, Up/Down asks, Kalshi's live fee schedule). Kalshi public data only; no prediction.
- [GET /api/record](https://degenhedge.com/api/record): our graded BTC alert record, overall and by entry price, each row with its average entry, breakeven before and after fees, Wilson interval and data-through date. Quote the win rate with its entry price.
- [GET /api/kalshi-fee?price=95&contracts=10](https://degenhedge.com/api/kalshi-fee?price=95&contracts=10): Kalshi's taker fee for a price in cents and an order size, with exact cent rounding, total cost and breakeven.
- [Remote MCP server](https://degenhedge.com/api/#mcp): https://degenhedge.com/mcp (Streamable HTTP, POST, no key) with read-only tools get_btc_window, get_graded_record and kalshi_fee. Registry name com.degenhedge/kalshi-btc; server card at https://degenhedge.com/mcp/server-card. Supports protocol 2026-07-28 and the initialize-based 2025 versions.

## Data
- [Results log](https://degenhedge.com/results/): every graded signal, wins and losses, with entry price.
- [results.csv](https://degenhedge.com/results.csv): the full graded log as CSV.
- [Open dataset on Hugging Face](https://huggingface.co/datasets/DegenHedge/kalshi-btc-15m): every Kalshi KXBTC15M window Jan 10 to Oct 4, 2026 (official strike, settlement value, result, contracts traded) and our 11,541 graded BTC signals, CSV + Parquet with data dictionary and methodology. CC BY 4.0, version v2026.10.
- [Research index](https://degenhedge.com/research/): all studies, including the NFL repricing study.

## Method and risk
- [The Method](https://degenhedge.com/method/): how the models work and how signals are graded.
- [Risk](https://degenhedge.com/risk/): breakeven arithmetic against our own record.
- [The Kalshi lag, retired](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-lag/): a thesis we tested against our own order-book data and withdrew.

## Optional
- [Kalshi signals, explained](https://degenhedge.com/kalshi-signals/): what a graded, pre-committed signal is.
- [Free proof channel](https://t.me/DegenHedgeProof): Bitcoin (KXBTC15M) calls as graded recaps every 3 hours, each posted only after every window in its 3-hour block has closed (never live), plus every MLB and NFL signal posted on a delay and graded at settlement. Every BTC signal is also in the results log and results.csv.