Live MLB win-probability signals fired to Telegram the instant the Kalshi line lags the game. Plus NBA in-game alerts. Our model finds the gap between the real win probability and the market price — you act before it closes.
When a run scores or a lead changes, the real win probability jumps instantly. But the Kalshi line takes seconds to catch up — the crowd is slow to reprice. That gap between the math and the market is your opportunity.
Our model recomputes win probability from raw game state — run differential, inning, and outs — the moment it changes. When the market price still reflects the old state, the signal fires before the line corrects.
When our model says a team is a 78% favorite but the market still prices them at 62¢, you're not betting on a team — you're buying something worth 78¢ for 62¢. That's mispricing. That's the hedge.
Tracks every MLB game live — score, inning, outs, run differential — and the NBA equivalent from point margin and game clock. Recomputes true win probability on every change.
When the model's win probability and the live Kalshi price diverge past our edge threshold, an alert triggers — while the gap is still open.
Instant message: which team, the model's win probability, the current Kalshi price, the size of the edge, and a deep link straight to the market.
You're in control. Every alert shows the size of the edge — you decide how hard to lean, and let the math work over many bets. See sizing guide →
| Sport / Market | Window | Sample | Win Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ⚾ MLB In-Game | Live games | 229 games · 309 signals | 82.5% | 🟢 Live |
| 🏀 NBA In-Game | Live games | 52 games · 238 signals | 80.8% | 🟢 Live |
| ₿ BTC (Kalshi) — also available | 15-minute | 5,802 signals | 93.0% | 🟢 Live |
Every individual signal can lose 100% of your stake. Even at our MLB win rate of 82.5%, about 1 in 6 signals is a full loss — and losses come in clusters. This system works over many bets with disciplined sizing — not on any single one. If you can't afford to lose 5 in a row at your bet size, you're betting too much.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with money you can afford to lose. 21+ where legal — know your local rules.
Read the full risk reality →MLB and NBA, in-game. Our models track live game state and compare the true win probability against the live Kalshi price, then fire an alert the moment a real gap opens. MLB is the active focus this season; NBA runs through its season. MLB details → · NBA details →
Same idea, different model. MLB uses an empirical 2,232-state probability table built from run differential, inning, and outs. NBA uses a Goldman-Stern win-probability model from point margin and clock time. Both compare model probability against live Kalshi prices and fire when a real gap opens. MLB model → · NBA model →
Via Telegram. After subscribing, you'll be added to a private channel for your sport(s). Alerts fire automatically when the model signals. Each one shows: which team, the model's win probability, the current Kalshi price, the size of the edge, and a deep link straight to the market.
MLB averages ~7–9 in-game signals per night across the league once filters are applied. NBA averages ~4 per game-night during the season. We filter aggressively — quality over quantity — and you can tune the volume yourself (see below).
Yes. Message the bot /signals to choose how selective your alerts are: All Action — every signal we fire; Balanced — only stronger setups; Best Edges Only — the most selective, fewest alerts. It changes how many alerts you get and how wide an edge we require — it does not reduce your risk on any single bet (your stake sets that, and any signal can still lose 100%). Switch anytime with /signals.
It's the gap between our model's win probability and the price the market is charging. If the model says a team is a 78% favorite but the market still prices them at 62¢, that's a ~16-point edge. We only alert when that gap clears our threshold. You'll see the model probability, the price, and the edge in every alert so you can decide how hard to lean in.
Yes. These signals are built for the in-game team markets on Kalshi (e.g. KXMLBGAME), and every alert deep-links to the exact market. We provide the edge — you place the trade. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, available in most states.
Start small — $5–$20 per signal — until you've seen the edge work with your own eyes. A bigger gap between model and market is your strongest setup. Never bet more than you're comfortable losing on a single game. Detailed sizing guide →
No. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These are probabilistic signals — any single one can lose. Bet at your own risk and only with money you can afford to lose.
Yes, cancel anytime through your billing portal. No long-term commitment, no questions asked.