There are lots of ways to get Kalshi alerts on Telegram — price-move pings, whale-trade trackers, open-source bots. Most are genuinely useful. This page explains what each one does, what none of the free ones do, and what a graded record actually looks like.
See the Plans →"Tell me when this market crosses 70¢." Free bots and simple scripts do this well. If a threshold ping is all you need, a free tool is the right answer.
Watch order flow and flag unusually large fills. Good for seeing where money is moving. They tell you that someone traded big — not whether they were right.
Self-hosted scripts that poll the Kalshi API and push to Telegram. Free, flexible, and yours to run — if you're comfortable maintaining code and an API key.
A different job entirely: fire a specific call at a specific price, then log whether it won or lost — publicly. The first three are tools. This one is a record.
| Capability | Free tools (pings, trackers, scripts) | Graded signals (DegenHedge) |
|---|---|---|
| Price-threshold pings | ✓ Excellent — use one | Not the job |
| Volume & whale-trade spikes | ✓ Solid trackers exist | Not the job |
| Flags when a price is stale vs. the live game | ✗ No game-state model | ✓ Model % vs. Kalshi price, re-checked every 30–60 seconds |
| Grades its own calls | ✗ Nothing to grade — a ping isn't a call | ✓ Every alert logged win or loss |
| Publishes losses | ✗ | ✓ All of them, in the results log + CSV |
| Pre-commitment proof | ✗ | ✓ Locked Telegram posts before settlement |
To be clear about the first two rows: if all you want is "ping me when BTC-hourly crosses 70¢," a free bot does that perfectly and you should not pay anyone for it. What a threshold ping cannot tell you is when a price is wrong — stale relative to what's happening in the live game. That takes a model of the game state running next to the market. The mechanism — why Kalshi prices lag live events at all — is documented at /kalshi-lag/. The only edge we claim anywhere on this site is informational: for a stretch of seconds to minutes, the scoreboard knows something the price doesn't.
The moment a signal fires, the timestamp is recorded. No back-dating, no "we called it earlier."
The model's win probability and the live Kalshi price of the called side are logged at fire time — the two numbers the whole call rests on.
When the market settles, the result goes in the log. Losses are never deleted, reworded, or quietly dropped.
Sortable at degenhedge.com/results/, every loss included, plus a full CSV download at /results.csv.
A locked post lands in t.me/DegenHedgeProof ~10 minutes after each fire (side hidden), revealed at settlement — losses included. Running since June 13, 2026.
The current MLB record under V2.2 filters: 429 first-signal games graded — 350 wins, 79 losses (81.6%) as of July 6, 2026, from 630 logged signals. Four entries straight from that log:
MIN @ CLE — bottom 11th, MIN down 1. Model: 100% on MIN · Kalshi: 75¢. Final: MIN 2–1.
NYM @ WSH — bottom 9th. Model: 90% on NYM · Kalshi: 65¢. Final: NYM 2–1.
DET @ CWS — bottom 10th. Model read 100% on DET at 79¢. CWS walked it off 4–3. Even certainty-grade model reads lose.
HOU @ KC — 4th inning. Model: 89% on KC · Kalshi: 66¢. HOU came back to win 8–7.
Grading everything teaches you things a highlight reel never would. Example: a wider model-vs-price gap is not a safer signal. Games where the gap at fire was 10–15 points won 83.8% of the time (n=320); at 15–20 points the win rate dropped to 73.2% (n=82); at 20+ points it was 81.5% (n=27). When the market disagrees with the model by more, part of that disagreement is information — injuries, bullpen state, weather — that the model doesn't see. The median gap at fire is 12.5 points and the median Kalshi price of the called side is 80¢. What "graded" means in full depth — grading rules, filters, edge cases — is at /kalshi-signals/.
/teamsEvery signal can lose. About 1 in 5.4 graded MLB games is a loss, and losses cluster — the log shows losing streaks, not politely spaced-out misses. A model read of 100% has lost (see DET @ CWS, May 30, above). If a run of 5 straight losses at your chosen size would hurt, the size is wrong.
This is entertainment, not investment. The model is a fast Kalshi-lag detector, not an independent predictor of games. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You must be 18 or older. Only risk money you can afford to lose.
Read the full model details →The model re-checks every tracked game and market roughly every 30 seconds; when a signal fires, the Telegram message goes out within seconds. Speed is the whole point — the lag being measured lasts seconds to minutes (here's why it exists), and BTC windows only live for 15 minutes.
A free Telegram account. Subscribe via Stripe, connect the bot from your welcome email, and alerts arrive as ordinary Telegram messages. A Kalshi account is only relevant if you decide to act on a signal — that decision is yours, not ours.
Anytime, through the Stripe customer portal (linked in every receipt) or by emailing [email protected]. Access runs through the end of the current billing period.
Don't take this page's word for it. The full sortable log — every loss included — is at /results/, the raw data is at /results.csv, and the pre-commitment channel at t.me/DegenHedgeProof shows locked posts made before settlement, revealed win or lose.