Kalshi opens a Bitcoin up-or-down market every 15 minutes, around the clock apart from a weekly maintenance break. On most windows, about two minutes before the close, our model's read and the live Kalshi price land on your Telegram, about a second after the read is computed. An instrument panel, not a tip sheet. Free for 30 days, then $4.99 a month.
Kalshi lists a Bitcoin up-or-down market every 15 minutes, apart from a short weekly maintenance break. Nobody watches all of them. The bot does: it tracks how far BTC has moved since each window opened, and about two minutes before the close it sends our model's read, the live Kalshi price for that side and a link to the market. Watching every window is the advantage we sell. It fires on most windows, so expect dozens of alerts a day.
These alerts fire at a 91.7¢ average entry (96¢ median). A contract at that price has to win that often just to return the stake, so our 91.2% record sits below breakeven before fees and further below after. Wins are a few cents a contract and a loss is the whole stake. We do not present BTC as an edge on the price, because our data does not support one. Fees and breakeven at every price →
Each BTC signal is logged when it fires and graded when its window settles, losers included: 1,062 of them so far. The full log is on the results page and in a downloadable CSV, and what the data shows is in our research write-ups, including how these markets settle. Read them before you pay.
You are already trading these markets. This is the panel: it watches every BTC window and every live game and puts our model's read beside the live price: on BTC about two minutes before each close, on sports within about a second of the model and the price splitting past our threshold. What you do about that is yours. Take it, skip it, or use it to decide which game to pull up. The call goes into the public log and gets graded either way, so you can see afterwards what the alert was worth.
You have a Kalshi account and you trade these markets already: BTC 15-minute windows, live games, or both. You want every window covered instead of the one you happen to be watching. You size your own positions, you make your own calls, and you would rather read a graded log with the losses in it than a screenshot of somebody's winner. $4.99 a month is the price of having every window watched instead of the one in front of you.
You want picks to follow blindly, or you are expecting to come out ahead. We make no claim that a subscriber profits, and our own data does not support one: the BTC record sits below the breakeven its 91.7¢ average entry implies, and at a median entry of 80¢ the MLB record sits close to breakeven before fees. If you need this to pay for itself, do not hand us a card. Read the BTC log, follow the free proof channel (graded BTC recaps every 3 hours, MLB and NFL calls on a delay), watch for a month, and decide for yourself.
Every MLB game on the board and every matching Kalshi market, tracked continuously, all night. This is the part you physically cannot do yourself: you have one screen and one attention span, and the eleventh game is where the interesting thing happens. Watching all of them at once is an advantage, and it is the one we sell.
A run scores and the model's win probability moves instantly. The Kalshi price is a separate number set by whoever happens to be trading it. When the two split past our threshold, the alert is already on your phone: seconds, not innings. That is speed and reach, not prophecy. The model is our estimate and on our own graded record it has run optimistic, and we make no claim about what the price does next.
They all quote a win rate. Almost none of them will hand you the log behind it. Every call we make is posted in public and graded at settlement, the bad ones alongside the good ones, sortable and downloadable, checkable against Kalshi yourself. We do not sell screenshots and we do not claim you will come out ahead. Judge us on the whole record before you pay for anything.
All of them, not the one on your TV. Score, inning, outs and run differential on every live MLB game, the NBA equivalent from point margin and clock, and the matching Kalshi market beside each one. Win probability is recomputed on every change.
When the model's win probability and the live Kalshi price split by more than our threshold, the signal fires. The alert reports that disagreement and the price you would pay. It does not predict what the price does next, and we have never asked you to believe that it does.
A Telegram message, immediately: which team, the live Kalshi price, the model's estimate labelled as our estimate, the game state, and a deep link straight to that market. No dashboard to watch, no refreshing.
The same call goes into the public log and is graded at settlement, win or lose, whether or not you touched it. What you do with an alert is entirely yours: take it, skip it, or just use it to know which game to pull up. See the sizing guide →
| Sport / Market | Window | Sample | Win Rate | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ₿ BTC 15-min (Kalshi) Fires at high entry prices, so the win rate reflects the price you pay. At a 91.7¢ average entry breakeven is 91.7%, and this rate sits below it before fees and further below after. See the BTC research → |
15-minute | 12,083 graded signals | 91.2% at a 91.7¢ average entry, 96¢ median |
🟢 Live |
| ⚾ MLB In-Game | Live games | 948 games · 1,381 signals | 78.9% median entry 80¢ |
🟢 Live |
| 🏈 NFL In-Game Live since September 9. Small sample: read it as early, not settled. |
Live games | 35 games | 57.1% at a 63.4¢ average entry |
🟢 Live |
| 🏀 NBA In-Game | Live games | One partial season logged | Not publishable yet — entry prices are being re-derived | 🟠 Opens at tip-off |
Every signal can lose 100% of your stake. On BTC the win rate is high because the contracts are expensive: at a 91.7¢ average entry a loss takes the whole stake and erases the profit from many wins at that price, and 1,062 BTC signals have lost so far. On MLB, even at a win rate of 78.9% (at a median entry of 80¢), about 1 in 5 signals is a full loss, sometimes several in a row. Volume does not fix that. More alerts only help if each one is priced better than it settles, and we cannot show you that it is: the BTC and MLB records sit at or below breakeven before fees, and the NFL live record is small; its rate sits beside its entry price in the table above. Size for that, not for the win rate. If you cannot afford to lose five in a row at your chosen stake, that stake is too large.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with money you can afford to lose. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+) — know your local rules.
Read the full risk reality →/manage in the bot, or email [email protected]. Cancelling later stops future renewals at the end of the current paid month and does not refund it. MLB only: MLB alerts run through the World Series in late October. The feed is quiet over the winter. After the final World Series game we pause billing on MLB subscriptions bought on degenhedge.com, so nothing is charged over the winter. Billing resumes shortly before Opening Day, and we email you at least 7 days before the first charge. Cancel any time from your account page. No refunds except as required by law. By starting a trial you authorize these recurring charges and agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Signals are informational and for entertainment only, are not financial or betting advice, and any single signal can lose 100% of your stake. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
In one sentence: DegenHedge is a Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets (KXBTC15M) and for in-game Kalshi sports markets; every alert is graded in public, each feed is $4.99 a month after a 30-day free trial, and its Bitcoin record (91.2% at a 91.7¢ average entry) sits below the breakeven its entry prices imply, so it is sold as coverage, not as an edge.
Kalshi lists a Bitcoin up-or-down market (KXBTC15M) every 15 minutes, around the clock apart from a weekly maintenance break. About two minutes before each window closes, our bot sends our model's read of which side settles, the live Kalshi price for that side and a link to the market. It fires on most windows, so expect dozens of alerts a day; mute the bot whenever you are not trading. Free for 30 days, then $4.99 a month. What our BTC data shows →
Not on the price, and we do not sell it as one. The contracts are expensive: our alerts fire at a 91.7¢ average entry, and a contract at that price has to win 91.7% of the time just to return the stake. Our record is 91.2% across 12,083 graded signals, below that line before fees and further below after Kalshi's fees. What you are buying is coverage (every window, around the clock), speed (the read is on your phone about a second after it is computed) and a public log of every call. The arithmetic, price by price, is in our fees and breakeven study.
MLB, NFL and NBA, in-game. Our models track live game state, compare the model's win probability against the live Kalshi price, and fire an alert the moment the two diverge past our threshold. NFL is live and its public record is still small; MLB runs through the World Series; NBA is offseason, with its alerts and public record opening at tip-off in late October. MLB details → · NBA details → · NFL details →
Same idea, different model. MLB uses an empirical 2,232-state probability table built from run differential, inning, and outs. NBA uses a Goldman-Stern win-probability model from point margin and clock time. Both compare model probability against live Kalshi prices and fire when the two diverge past our threshold. MLB model → · NBA model →
Via Telegram. After subscribing, you tap one link to start the DegenHedge bot for your feed, and it messages you directly. Alerts fire automatically when the model signals. BTC alerts show the side (UP or DOWN), the live Kalshi ask, the model's estimate labelled as our estimate and historically optimistic, and the window close time. Sports alerts show the team, the live Kalshi price, the model's estimate labelled as ours, and the game state. Every alert deep-links to the market.
BTC fires on most 15-minute windows, around the clock, so expect dozens a day; it has no volume setting, so mute the bot when you are not trading. On sports, MLB averages about 7 to 9 in-game signals per night across the league once filters are applied and NBA about 4 per game-night during the season, and you can tune sports volume yourself (see below).
Nothing fires, and that's by design. MLB and NBA signals are live, in-game alerts, so on off-days, the All-Star break, or between seasons, the bot stays quiet instead of inventing action. A silent day means no games (or no divergence wide enough on the ones being played), not a broken feed. If you want signals every day, the BTC 15-minute alerts run around the clock, apart from a weekly maintenance break. They are a separate $4.99/mo feed with its own 30-day free trial.
Yes. Message the bot /signals to choose how many alerts you get: All Action — every signal we fire; Balanced — only the wider model-versus-price differences; Widest Divergence Only — only the widest differences, fewest alerts. This is a volume control, not a quality ranking: a wider difference is not a better bet, and across our graded data the widest ones have not settled better than moderate ones. It changes how many alerts you get and how wide a model-versus-market difference we require — it does not reduce your risk on any single bet (your stake sets that, and any signal can still lose 100%). Switch anytime with /signals.
On sports alerts it is arithmetic, not a payout. BTC alerts are not triggered by the difference: they fire on the clock, about two minutes before each window closes, whenever the model leans one side at 60% or more. The only price check skips an alert when our side costs under 50¢ and the model sits more than 12 points above that price. Read a BTC alert as our read beside the price, nothing more. On sports, it is our model's win probability minus the price the market is charging. If the model reads a team at 78% while the market prices them at 62¢, the difference is 16 points, and we alert when that clears our threshold. It is not money: our model has historically run optimistic against settled outcomes, and our own order-book data shows the price does not systematically move toward us after an alert. Read the difference as a description of a disagreement, not as an amount you are owed.
Yes. These signals are built for Kalshi markets: the Bitcoin 15-minute up/down markets (KXBTC15M) and the in-game team markets (e.g. KXMLBGAME), and every alert deep-links to the exact market. We provide the detection; you place the trade. Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange, available in most states.
Start small until you have seen how the alerts behave with your own eyes. A bigger difference between model and market is not a better bet — across our graded data the widest ones have not settled better than moderate ones. Never bet more than you're comfortable losing on a single game. At $4.99 the subscription is roughly one $5 signal a month. That is a fee, not a hedge: it comes off the top whether the month wins or loses, and it does not shrink the loss on any single call. How the price sets your break-even →
No. Past performance does not guarantee future results. These are probabilistic signals — any single one can lose. Bet at your own risk and only with money you can afford to lose.
So the subscription can start on its own when the trial ends, and so one person cannot run trial after trial on fresh email addresses. Your card is stored by Stripe, our payment processor. Nothing is charged when you start, and if you cancel before the trial ends it is never charged at all.
Not today. Your trial runs 30 days from checkout. On day 31 your card is charged $4.99, and then $4.99 on the same day each month until you cancel. Your welcome email states the exact date, /status in the bot shows it, and we email you a reminder 7 days before the first charge with the amount, the date and a cancel link.
Three ways, any time: send /manage in the bot, use your account page, or email [email protected]. Cancel during the trial and you are never charged. Cancel later and the alerts keep running through the end of the month you already paid for; that month is not refunded. No long-term commitment, no questions asked.