We watch all thirteen, plus every matching Kalshi market, from the opening kickoff. The second our model and a price disagree, it is on your phone in about a second.
Free for 30 days, then $4.99 a month. A card is required to start, you are not charged today, and if you cancel by day 30 you pay nothing. The going rate in this category is $40 to $60 a month.
Pre-game model tables are free and everywhere. Nothing else does this while the game is running, and nothing else does it in about a second, as far as we can find.
The whole slate at once, not the one on your TV. The model computes P(home wins) from the live score, quarter, and clock, using ESPN's play-by-play win probability with a calibrated fallback when the feed drops.
Live Kalshi NFL moneyline prices are fetched every 30 seconds via the Kalshi API. The gap between model probability and the market price is the signal.
When the model's estimate and the live Kalshi price split by more than our threshold, the alert goes to your phone in about a second. Quiet stretches are normal: most of a game produces no signal at all, and we would rather send you nothing than invent action.
The same call goes into the public log and is graded at settlement, win or lose, whether you acted on it or not. If you do act, you place it yourself on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US exchange our model is priced against and every alert deep-links to. You'll need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states).
NFL's live record is still small. As of October 5, 2026: 27 games graded, 59.3% at a 63.8¢ average entry, below the breakeven that price implies. Live figures are in the results log.
Read those two numbers together: a contract at that average price has to win that often just to return the stake, before fees. Before the season, every NFL number came from a replay of a season that already happened, where nobody traded and no money changed hands. That is a hypothesis about the past, not a result, so there is no backtest figure on this page. We published the whole study anyway, gate, method and the two headlines we retired: read it →
Week 1's opener produced no alert; the public NFL record started with the first one after it. Every call goes into it, losses included, and your thirty free days are long enough to watch it grow before you pay anything. See every NFL call → · NFL alerts, free on Telegram 12 minutes after they fire →
You are already trading these markets. This is the panel: it watches every game on the slate and flags the moment our model and the live price disagree, in about a second. What you do about that is yours. Take it, skip it, or use it to know which game to pull up. The call gets graded in public either way, so you can see afterwards what it was worth.
You have a Kalshi account and trade live markets already. You want the whole Sunday slate covered instead of the single game on your TV. You size your own positions and you would rather read a graded log with the losses in it than a screenshot of somebody's winner. $4.99 a month is the price of not missing the other twelve games.
You want picks to follow blindly, or you are expecting to come out ahead. We make no such claim. If you need this to pay for itself, do not hand us a card. Follow the free channel and judge the stream on its own record instead.
Every signal can lose 100% of your stake. NFL games turn on a single turnover, a missed kick, or a late score, and a model that reads the market well most of the time will still be wrong, sometimes several times in a row. Volume does not fix that. More alerts only help if each one is priced better than it settles, and we cannot show you that it is: our longest live record, MLB, sits close to breakeven before fees, and the NFL live record is too small to say more. Size for that, not for a rate we have not earned yet. If you cannot afford to lose 5 in a row at your chosen stake, that stake is too large.
The model number is our estimate, not a forecast of football. It is best understood as a fast state reader, and against settled outcomes our models have run optimistic: read the correction. Past performance of our other markets does not predict NFL results.
DegenHedge is an analysis and entertainment tool, not financial, investment or betting advice, and not a promise that you will profit. Losses are part of the record and we publish them. Bet only with capital you can afford to lose. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Read the full risk disclosure → · Read the full model details →Your first 30 days are free and a card is required to start. At the end of the trial your card is charged $4.99 and then $4.99 every month until you cancel. Cancel before the trial ends and you pay nothing. There is no prepaid season option and no up-front payment of any kind. NFL alerts run through the Super Bowl in February and the feed is quiet until the season starts again in September; we are building an automatic offseason billing pause and will email you before it takes effect, and until it is live you can cancel from your account page and are not charged again. Start free, 30 days →
On the record, not yet. Trust the two things you can check inside your first week: that we are watching every game on the slate, and that the alert reaches you in about a second. Then let the log earn the rest. Our first replay of last season looked spectacular until we found the play feed stamps plays early, which meant it was pairing a post-play read of the game with a market price nobody could have traded. Delaying both to match how the live bot really polls collapsed that headline. We published the whole thing anyway, including the figure that died, so you can check the work: read the published backtest → What the live stream earns shows up in the public results log, graded as it happens.
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US prediction-market exchange with live in-game team markets. Our alerts are informational — to act on one you place the trade yourself, so yes, you'll need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states). Every alert deep-links to the exact market.
Through Telegram, the same way our MLB and NBA streams work. You start your free trial via Stripe and then activate @DegenHedgeNFLbot; alerts fire to your phone the moment our model and the live Kalshi price disagree past our threshold: team called, live price, our model's estimate labelled as an estimate, score, quarter, clock, and a deep link.
Fewer than our baseball product, simply because there are far fewer NFL games — a typical week is a Thursday game, a Sunday slate, and a Monday game. Many games will produce no signal at all, and you'll be able to tune the volume with /signals. A quiet week means our model and the market never disagreed past the threshold, not a broken feed.
You get occasional updates by email, and that's the whole deal. It asks for nothing but an email address. It doesn't reserve a spot, lock a price, or obligate you to anything, and you can unsubscribe from any email. See our Privacy Policy.
You are not charged today. Stripe stores your card and you activate the NFL bot. NFL alerts are live now and fire during games, so the bot is quiet between games and on any game where nothing crosses our threshold — Week 1's opener was one of those. Your 30 free days run from the day you start, and on day 31 your card is charged $4.99, and then $4.99 a month until you cancel. Seven days before that first charge we email you the amount, the date and a cancel link. Cancel any time before the trial ends with /manage in the bot, from your account page at degenhedge.com/account/, or by emailing [email protected], and you pay nothing. No refunds except as required by law. Any single signal can lose 100% of your stake, so bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+.
The trial is how you check it yourself. Thirty days is about four game weeks, and every alert lands in the public log as it fires, wins and losses alike. Watch the record it earns, and if it is not one you would pay for, cancel before day 30 and it cost you nothing.
More answers on the homepage FAQ and in The Method.
You're joining the DegenHedge email list for occasional updates. No spam, unsubscribe anytime. Joining is free and does not reserve a spot, lock a price, or obligate you to buy anything.
Watch the free proof feed on Telegram →
· See every NFL call in the results log →
· Read the risk page →
NFL alerts are live now, every game, and every call is graded in the public log. Start free for 30 days, or watch the free proof feed first.
NFL alerts run through the Super Bowl in February. The feed is quiet from February until the season starts again in September. We are building an automatic offseason billing pause and will email you before it takes effect; until it is live, cancel any time from your account page and you are not charged again. Cancel any time.
Start free, 30 days →/manage in the bot, or email [email protected]. Cancelling later stops future renewals at the end of the current paid month and does not refund it. NFL only: NFL alerts run through the Super Bowl in February. The feed is quiet from February until the season starts again in September. We are building an automatic offseason billing pause and will email you before it takes effect; until it is live, cancel any time from your account page and you are not charged again. Cancel any time. No refunds except as required by law. By starting a trial you authorize these recurring charges and agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Signals are informational and for entertainment only, are not financial or betting advice, and any single signal can lose 100% of your stake. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER. See also the risk disclosure.