Data studies on how Kalshi markets actually behave.
We fire thousands of graded signals on Kalshi prediction markets and log every one — win or loss — into a public dataset. These studies are what that data shows about the markets themselves: where prices lag, where they don't, and what a headline win rate really means. Nothing here is a pitch. Every number is reproducible from the public results log and the downloadable CSV.
Bitcoin · 9,800+ windowsThe win rate on 15-minute BTC contracts tracks the price you pay almost exactly — and near-flat windows are a coin flip, every month, because settlement noise dominates. A rigorous look at what a high hit rate on these markets is really made of.
NFL · Mechanism studyFootball win probability moves in discrete jumps the instant a play ends; resting limit orders do not. Where the gap comes from, the four structural reasons it persists, why a visible gap is not free money, and the full-season replay we used to test it. No performance figures — deliberately.