Research

Data studies on how Kalshi markets actually behave.

We fire thousands of graded signals on Kalshi prediction markets and log every one — win or loss — into a public dataset. These studies are what that data shows about the markets themselves: where prices lag, where they don't, and what a headline win rate really means. Nothing here is a pitch. Every number is reproducible from the public results log and the downloadable CSV.

Bitcoin · 9,800+ windows

What 9,800 Graded Kalshi BTC 15-Minute Windows Show

The win rate on 15-minute BTC contracts tracks the price you pay almost exactly — and near-flat windows are a coin flip, every month, because settlement noise dominates. A rigorous look at what a high hit rate on these markets is really made of.

In progress

Using our data? The full graded record is free and open — browse it at degenhedge.com/results/, pull the machine-readable CSV, or hit the live /stats JSON endpoint. If you cite a finding, a link back is appreciated. Questions on methodology or grading rules: [email protected].