We have not found a strategy in our data that beats the price after fees, and our own feed has not either: 91.21% won at a 91.74¢ average entry across 11,537 graded signals, 0.53 points under breakeven before fees. What the data does show is where money leaks: fees on small orders at extreme prices, close finishes near the strike, trading off an exchange chart instead of the settlement index, and reading a win rate without its price. Those are worth knowing whatever you do.
A contract at P cents has to win P% of the time to break even before fees. In our data the Kalshi ask tracked how often each side actually won, bucket by bucket, and by hour of the day the gap between win rate and ask stayed between -2.5 and +1.3 points, with no hour beyond chance (calibration, time of day). A strategy that wins 90% of the time is only as good as the price it paid for those wins.
What does not work: judging a method by its hit rate. Our feed's 91.21% sounds high until it sits next to 91.74¢.
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent for the order. On one contract that is 2¢ at 50¢ and 1¢ at 99¢. On a 100-contract order it is about 1.75¢ per contract at 50¢ and 0.07¢ at 99¢. A one-contract order at 99¢ pays a 1¢ fee to make at most 1¢, so its breakeven is 100%. 58.1% of our own signals were priced at 95¢ or higher, where this matters most.
Work out any price and size in the fee and breakeven calculator.
99¢ asks about three minutes before the close lost 28 of 2,833 times (0.99%), close to what the price implies (99¢ study). At 99¢ one loss erases 99 wins; at 96¢ it erases 24. Late leads do tend to hold, 87.7% of the time with two and a half to three minutes left, but the ask already prices that in.
About 1 in 22 windows settled within $5 of the strike and 1 in 116 within $1. In the 946 windows we logged that went on to finish within $5, the side Bitcoin was on three minutes before the close lost 44.2% of the time, against 10.6% for every other window (strike study). When moves are tiny, settlement noise decides the result, not direction.
The live window page shows the official strike and a spot reference side by side, so you can see how close a window is before you look at the price.
Kalshi settles each window on the 60-second average of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before the close, measured against the 60-second average before the open. A Coinbase spot read at the close pointed the wrong way on 4.40% of 18,001 windows, 92% of them within $25 of the strike (settlement study).
The 10 AM ET hour has the largest moves, with only 7.9% of its windows ending within 0.02% of the strike, and Saturdays have the most knife-edge finishes (21.7%). But no hour's ask beat or missed its outcomes by more than chance across 24,941 windows. Streaks do not help either: Up won 48.03% after an Up window and 51.69% after a Down window, a tilt smaller than the fee at 50¢ (integrity study).
| Idea | What our data shows |
|---|---|
| High win rate = good strategy | Only next to the price. 91.21% at 91.74¢ is under breakeven. |
| Buy the late leader | Leads hold 87.7% of the time, and the ask already says so. |
| 99¢ contracts cannot lose | Lost 0.99% of the time; a one-contract order cannot profit after the fee. |
| Trade off the exchange chart | Wrong at the close on 4.40% of windows, mostly near the strike. |
| Pick the right hour | Changes volatility; no hour beat its price beyond chance. |
| Fade or follow streaks | A tilt smaller than the fee. |
If you trade these markets anyway, the honest version of a strategy is about cost control: know your breakeven including the fee, know how close the window is to its strike, and size so that one loss at a high price, which costs many times what a win pays, is affordable. For the mechanics of a single window, see how Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets settle. For tools that automate any of this, see Kalshi BTC 15-minute bots.
We have not found one in our data. The Kalshi ask tracked how often each side won, our own feed won 91.21% at a 91.74¢ average entry (below breakeven before fees), and no entry price, hour of the day or streak pattern beat its price by more than chance.
Time of day changes how much Bitcoin moves, not how well the price matches outcomes. The 10 AM ET hour has the largest moves and Saturdays the most knife-edge finishes, but no hour's ask beat or missed its outcomes by more than chance across 24,941 windows.
Not on a one-contract order: the 1¢ fee takes the whole 1¢ profit. 99¢ asks also lost 0.99% of the time in our log (28 of 2,833), and each loss costs about 99 wins.
Late leads usually hold, 87.7% of the time with two and a half to three minutes left, but the ask already prices that in. Results lean very slightly against streaks, by less than the fee at 50¢.
Because settlement noise decides them. In windows that finished within $5 of the strike, the side Bitcoin was on three minutes out lost 44.2% of the time, against 10.6% for all other windows.
A lot at the extremes. The taker fee on one contract is 2¢ at 50¢ and 1¢ at 99¢, rounded up per order, so small orders at high prices pay the most relative to what they can win.
Free to read, free to check, and the paid feed is optional.
Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled.
This is a free trial that becomes an automatically renewing subscription. A payment card is required to start, and you are not charged today. Your trial runs 30 days. At the end of it your card is charged $4.99 and then $4.99 every month until you cancel. Cancel any time before the trial ends and you pay nothing: use your account page, send /manage in the bot, or email [email protected]. Cancelling later stops future renewals at the end of the current paid month and does not refund it. No refunds except as required by law. By starting a trial you authorize these recurring charges and agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Signals are informational and for entertainment only, are not financial or betting advice, and any single signal can lose 100% of your stake. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
These are 15-minute binary prediction-market contracts. Any single window can lose 100% of your stake. They settle on a 60-second index average, not on the exchange chart you may be watching. At high prices a loss costs many times what a win pays, and Kalshi's fee raises the win rate you need above the price. Nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade only with money you can afford to lose. Must be 18+ or of legal age where you live. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.