1 What You Need
Set up once, then forget about it.
For BTC Signals
An account on Kalshi (15-minute windows) and/or Polymarket (5-minute windows). Both are regulated prediction markets where you buy YES/NO contracts on whether BTC will close a window UP or DOWN.
For NBA Alerts
An account on Kalshi. NBA game markets (series ticker KXNBAGAME) are binary contracts: buy YES on a team, it pays $1.00 if they win. You can also use any traditional sportsbook (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.) — the signal tells you which team has edge, you place the bet wherever you have an account.
- Sign up for Kalshi — fund with USD (bank transfer or debit card). NBA markets are under "Sports."
For MLB Alerts
An account on Kalshi. MLB game markets (series ticker KXMLBGAME) work the same way — buy YES on a team, it pays $1.00 if they win. As with NBA, you can substitute any traditional sportsbook moneyline if you already have an account elsewhere.
Telegram
All alerts come via Telegram. Install it on your phone with notifications on. After subscribing, you'll link your Telegram to your DegenHedge account with the /link command.
2 Anatomy of an Alert
Every line means something. Here's what you're looking at.
BTC Signal Example
🚨
SIGNAL: DOWN (Polymarket 5-min)
──────────────────
📊 Model confidence:
88.3% DOWN
💰 Market price (DOWN):
$0.24
📐 Gap:
+27% (model vs market)
⏱ Window closes in:
52 seconds
──────────────────
Act fast. Suggested: buy DOWN on Polymarket.
Model confidence: 88.3% DOWN
Our model says there's an 88.3% chance BTC closes this window DOWN.
Market price (DOWN): $0.24
The DOWN contract costs $0.24 on Polymarket right now. If DOWN wins, it pays $1.00.
Gap: +27%
Model says 88%, market says 24%. That 64-point gap is your edge. The market hasn't repriced yet.
Window closes in: 52 seconds
You have less than a minute to act. BTC windows are fast.
NBA Signal Example
🏀
SIGNAL: Lakers
──────────────────
💰 Kalshi:
$0.55 (
+24% edge)
🏟 PHX 76 — LAL 84 · Q3 5:32
──────────────────
Strong edge on Lakers. Check the live price — odds move fast in-game.
Kalshi: $0.55 (+24% edge)
The Lakers YES contract costs $0.55 on Kalshi — pays $1.00 if LAL wins. The +24% edge is how much higher our Goldman-Stern model puts LAL's win probability than Kalshi does (model ≈ 79%, market 55%).
PHX 76 — LAL 84
Away team first, em-dash separator. LAL leads 84-76. Sanity-check this on any live score app before you trade.
Q3 5:32
5 minutes, 32 seconds left in the third quarter — about 17 minutes of NBA game time remaining.
Strong edge … odds move fast in-game
Bottom-line tone reflects the edge size. Strong (≥ 20pp), Moderate (12–20pp), and Thin (< 12pp) each get their own wording so you know how aggressively to act vs. how stale the snapshot may already be.
MLB Signal Example
⚾
SIGNAL: WSH
──────────────────
💰 Kalshi:
$0.65 (
+23% edge)
🏟 NYM 1 — WSH 4 · B5, 2 out
──────────────────
Strong edge on WSH. Check the live price — odds move fast in-game.
Kalshi: $0.65 (+23% edge)
The WSH YES contract costs $0.65 on Kalshi — pays $1.00 if WSH wins. The +23% edge is how much higher our empirical run-differential model puts WSH's win probability than Kalshi does (model ≈ 88%, market 65%).
NYM 1 — WSH 4
Away team first, em-dash separator. WSH leads 4-1. Verify on any live score app before betting.
B5, 2 out
Bottom of the 5th inning, 2 outs. "T" = top, "B" = bottom. About 4 innings of game time remain.
Strong edge … odds move fast in-game
Bottom-line tone reflects the edge size. Strong (≥ 20pp), Moderate (12–20pp), and Thin (< 12pp) each get their own wording so you know how aggressively to act vs. how stale the snapshot may already be.
3 BTC Signals: Step by Step
Speed matters. These windows close in minutes.
1
Get the alert on Telegram. You'll see the direction (UP or DOWN), the model's confidence, the current market price, and how long until the window closes.
2
Open Kalshi or Polymarket. Navigate to the BTC price prediction market. On Kalshi, these are "Bitcoin Above/Below $X" markets. On Polymarket, search "BTC" and find the current 5-minute window.
3
Check the live price. The alert shows you the price at signal time, but it may have shifted by the time you look. If the contract still costs less than what the model says it's worth, the edge is still there.
4
Buy the contract. If the signal says DOWN and the DOWN contract is $0.24, you're paying $0.24 to win $1.00. Place a market order for speed, or a limit order at your target price.
5
Wait for settlement. The window closes automatically. If the signal was correct, your contract settles at $1.00. If not, it settles at $0.00. No action needed — it's automatic.
Timing: Kalshi windows are 15 minutes (you typically have ~2 min after the signal). Polymarket windows are 5 minutes (~45 seconds). Act fast on Polymarket — set up your account and know where the market is before your first signal.
4 NBA Alerts: Step by Step
More time to act. Games last hours, not minutes.
1
Get a pregame alert ~10 min before tip-off. This shows you which games are coming up and where Kalshi has each team priced. No action needed yet — the alert includes a deep-link to the Kalshi market page.
2
Get an in-game signal. During the game, when the model detects a gap between the live score situation and Kalshi's price, you'll get an alert with the team, model confidence, Kalshi price, and gap.
3
Open the Kalshi market. Tap the deep-link in the alert, or navigate to the KXNBAGAME series and find the live game. The market shows two outcomes — each team's name with a YES price.
4
Check the live price. The alert said "Kalshi (Lakers): $0.55" — is it still around $0.55? If it's already jumped to $0.78, the market caught up and the edge is gone. Move on.
5
Buy YES on the called team. If the price is still close to what the alert showed, buy YES. Each contract pays $1.00 if the team wins. Your profit is $1.00 minus what you paid.
6
Wait for the game to end. When the final buzzer sounds, your contracts settle automatically. WIN = $1.00 per contract. LOSS = $0.00. You'll also get a result alert from the bot.
Using a sportsbook instead? The signal works the same way — the called team is the one with edge. Place a moneyline bet on that team through DraftKings, FanDuel, or wherever you have an account. The Kalshi price in the alert is for reference; your sportsbook odds will differ slightly.
5 MLB Alerts: Step by Step
Same flow as NBA. Different model, longer games, more alerts per night.
1
Get a pregame alert ~10 min before first pitch. Shows you the matchup, Kalshi's pregame line, and a deep-link to the KXMLBGAME market for that game.
2
Get an in-game signal once the game reaches the 3rd inning. The model needs at least 2 innings of scoring data before it'll fire. Alerts include team, confidence, Kalshi price, run differential, and current inning.
3
Open the Kalshi market. Use the deep-link in the alert. The KXMLBGAME page shows YES contracts for each team with the live price.
4
Check the live price. Confirm the Kalshi price is still close to the alert price. MLB markets move slower than NBA but still re-price quickly when the score changes.
5
Buy YES on the called team. If the price is still close, place the order. Pays $1.00 per contract on a win.
6
Wait for the final out. Settlement is automatic when the game ends. You'll get a result alert from @DegenHedgeMLBbot.
Filter by your teams: Send /teams LAD ATL HOU to @DegenHedgeMLBbot and you'll only get alerts on those games. /teams all turns the filter off. Useful: MLB has 2,430 games per season — you may not want every alert.
6 Bet Sizing
This is where most people go wrong.
Risk 1-5% of your bankroll per signal. If you have $500 to trade with, bet $5-25 per signal. Not $100. Not $250.
Why? Because even at 90%+ win rates, you will hit losing streaks. Five losses in a row at 10% WR happens roughly once every 100,000 trades — but three in a row happens about once every 1,000. If you're betting 20% of your bankroll, three losses wipes 50% of your account.
The math works over many bets with consistent sizing. Not over a few bets with aggressive sizing.
Quick Reference
- $100 bankroll: $1-5 per signal
- $500 bankroll: $5-25 per signal
- $1,000 bankroll: $10-50 per signal
- $5,000 bankroll: $50-250 per signal
If you can't afford to lose 5 bets in a row at your chosen size, you're betting too much.
7 What Works and What Doesn't
Do This
- Check the live price before trading
- Stick to 1-5% bet sizing
- Trust the system over 50+ bets
- Skip if the price already moved
- Keep Polymarket/Kalshi open during game nights
- Read the result alerts — track your own P&L
Don't Do This
- Don't bet more after a win ("let it ride")
- Don't chase losses with bigger bets
- Don't add your gut feeling to the model
- Don't quit after 3 losses — that's variance
- Don't trade with money you can't lose
- Don't assume any single signal is a lock
Ready to start?
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