Our empirical win probability model watches every MLB game in real time. When the model sees a gap between what's happening on the diamond and what Kalshi is pricing — you get an alert.
Start MLB Alerts — $29.99/moEmpirical win probability model built from run differential, innings remaining, and outs. Computes P(home wins) from the current game state via the MLB Stats API.
Live KXMLBGAME moneyline prices are fetched every 30 seconds via the Kalshi API. The gap between model probability and Kalshi's market price is the signal.
When model confidence is strong and the gap versus the Kalshi price exceeds 8 percentage points, you get a Telegram alert.
Trade on Kalshi or use the signal on any sportsbook. We provide the edge — you execute where you have an account.
Every signal can lose. Sports betting is inherently unpredictable — upsets happen, bullpens blow leads, extra innings change everything. Our model works over many bets with disciplined sizing, not on any single game. If you can't afford to lose 5 in a row at your chosen bet size, you're betting too much.
The current 83.7% win rate is calculated under V2.2 filters running since April 26, 2026. The model is essentially a fast Kalshi-lag detector — not an independent predictor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with capital you can afford to lose.
Read the full model details →Subscribe and start receiving MLB alerts within minutes — paid via Stripe, delivered through @DegenHedgeMLBbot on Telegram.