Our empirical win probability model watches every MLB game in real time. When the model sees a gap between what's happening on the diamond and what Kalshi is pricing — you get an alert.
Empirical win probability model built from run differential, innings remaining, and outs. Computes P(home wins) from the current game state via the MLB Stats API.
Live KXMLBGAME moneyline prices are fetched every 30 seconds via the Kalshi API. The gap between model probability and Kalshi's market price is the signal.
When model confidence is strong and the gap versus the Kalshi price exceeds 8 percentage points, you get a Telegram alert.
The alert is informational — to act on it you place the bet yourself on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US exchange our model is priced against and every alert deep-links to. You'll need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states).
Every signal can lose. Sports betting is inherently unpredictable — upsets happen, bullpens blow leads, extra innings change everything. Our model works over many bets with disciplined sizing, not on any single game. If you can't afford to lose 5 in a row at your chosen bet size, you're betting too much.
The current 79.8% win rate is calculated under V2.2 filters running since April 26, 2026. The model is essentially a fast Kalshi-lag detector — not an independent predictor. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with capital you can afford to lose.
Read the full model details →Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US prediction-market exchange with live in-game team markets (e.g. KXMLBGAME). Our alerts are informational — to act on one you place the trade yourself, so yes, you need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states). Every alert deep-links to the exact market.
Through Telegram. After you subscribe via Stripe, you activate @DegenHedgeMLBbot and alerts fire to your phone the moment the model sees the Kalshi price lagging the live game — team called, model %, live price, edge, score, inning, outs, and a deep link.
Roughly 7–9 in-game signals a night across the league once filters apply, and you can tune the volume with /signals. Alerts are live only — on off-days, the All-Star break, or between seasons the bot stays quiet by design. A silent day means no games (or no real edge), not a broken feed.
Cancel anytime from your Stripe billing portal or by emailing [email protected] — no lock-in. It's an auto-renewing monthly subscription; no refunds except as required by law. Any single signal can lose 100% of your stake — bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+.
More answers on the homepage FAQ and in The Method.
Subscribe and start receiving MLB alerts within minutes — paid via Stripe, delivered through @DegenHedgeMLBbot on Telegram.