That is the whole product. Our win probability model reads every MLB game on the board and every matching Kalshi market at once, and the second the two disagree past our threshold, the alert is on your phone. Every call goes into a public log and is graded when the game settles, the losses included. You can read that log right now, before you spend anything.
All of them, all night, not the one on your TV. An empirical win probability model built from run differential, innings remaining, and outs computes P(home wins) from live game state via the MLB Stats API.
Live KXMLBGAME moneyline prices are fetched every 30 seconds via the Kalshi API. The gap between model probability and Kalshi's market price is the signal.
When the model probability is at least 85% and sits at least 10 percentage points above the Kalshi price, you get a Telegram alert.
The same call goes into the public log and is graded when the game settles, win or lose, whether you acted on it or not. If you do act, you place it yourself on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US exchange our model is priced against and every alert deep-links to. You'll need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states).
You are already trading these markets. This is the panel: it watches all of them and flags the moment our model and the live price disagree, on any game, in about a second. What you do about that is yours. Take it, skip it, or use it to know which game to pull up. The call gets graded in public either way, so you can see afterwards what it was worth.
You have a Kalshi account and trade live markets already. You want the whole slate covered instead of the single game in front of you. You size your own positions and you would rather read a graded log with the losses in it than a screenshot of somebody's winner. $4.99 a month is the price of not missing the other fourteen games.
You want picks to follow blindly, or you are expecting to come out ahead. We make no claim that a subscriber profits, and our own record does not support one: at a median entry of 80¢ it sits close to breakeven before fees. If you need this to pay for itself, do not hand us a card. Follow the free channel and judge it for a month instead.
Every signal can lose 100% of your stake. Upsets happen, bullpens blow leads, extra innings change everything, and a model that reads the market well most of the time will still be wrong, sometimes several times in a row. Volume does not fix that. More alerts only help if each one is priced better than it settles, and we cannot show you that it is: on the live record, 78.8% winners at a median entry of 80¢ sits close to breakeven before fees. Size for that, not for the win rate. If you cannot afford to lose five in a row at your chosen stake, that stake is too large.
The current 78.9% win rate, at a median entry of about 80¢, is calculated under V2.2 filters running since April 26, 2026. At that entry price the record sits close to breakeven before fees; see the risk page. The model is a fast state reader, not an independent predictor, and against settled outcomes it runs optimistic: read the correction. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with capital you can afford to lose.
Read the full model details →Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US prediction-market exchange with live in-game team markets (e.g. KXMLBGAME). Our alerts are informational — to act on one you place the trade yourself, so yes, you need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states). Every alert deep-links to the exact market.
Through Telegram. After you start your free trial via Stripe, you activate @DegenHedgeMLBbot and alerts fire to your phone the moment the model's read and the Kalshi price diverge: team called, live price, the model's estimate, score, inning, outs, and a deep link.
Roughly 7–9 in-game signals a night across the league once filters apply, and you can tune the volume with /signals. Alerts are live only — on off-days, the All-Star break, or between seasons the bot stays quiet by design. A silent day means no games (or no real edge), not a broken feed.
Cancel during the 30-day trial and you are never charged, with nothing to refund. After that it is an auto-renewing monthly subscription; cancelling stops the next renewal and does not refund the month already paid. No refunds except as required by law. Cancel with /manage in the bot, from your account page at degenhedge.com/account/, or by emailing [email protected]. Any single signal can lose 100% of your stake, so bet only what you can afford to lose. 18+.
More answers on the homepage FAQ and in The Method.
Start your free trial and receive MLB alerts within minutes. Card on file via Stripe, not charged today, delivered through @DegenHedgeMLBbot on Telegram.
MLB alerts run through the World Series in late October. The feed is quiet over the winter. After the final World Series game we pause billing on MLB subscriptions bought on degenhedge.com, so nothing is charged over the winter. Billing resumes shortly before Opening Day, and we email you at least 7 days before the first charge. Cancel any time from your account page.
Start free, 30 days →/manage in the bot, or email [email protected]. Cancelling later stops future renewals at the end of the current paid month and does not refund it. MLB only: MLB alerts run through the World Series in late October. The feed is quiet over the winter. After the final World Series game we pause billing on MLB subscriptions bought on degenhedge.com, so nothing is charged over the winter. Billing resumes shortly before Opening Day, and we email you at least 7 days before the first charge. Cancel any time from your account page. No refunds except as required by law. By starting a trial you authorize these recurring charges and agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Signals are informational and for entertainment only, are not financial or betting advice, and any single signal can lose 100% of your stake. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.