The Record Behind The Method

DegenHedge is a small independent operation. Deliberately, you will not find a personality here: no résumé, no credentials, no track-record-by-association. The only thing worth trusting is the log, and the log is public. The engineering is the Bayesian model behind the BTC signals, the Goldman-Stern normal-CDF calibration behind the NBA alerts, and the 2,232-state empirical table behind MLB.

DegenHedge exists because we got tired of two things in the prediction-market space: (1) products that promise edges they can't substantiate, and (2) products that hide their methodology so you can't tell whether the edge is real. So we built the opposite — publish the math, publish the live track record, refresh the stats every 30 seconds, and let people decide whether the methodology is sound.

The product we want to build is the one a sharp bettor would respect and a compliance reviewer would clear. Those are the same product.

What DegenHedge Is, and What It Is Not

In one sentence: DegenHedge is a Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets (KXBTC15M) and for in-game Kalshi sports markets; every alert is graded in public, each feed is $4.99 a month after a 30-day free trial, and its Bitcoin record (91.2% at a 91.7¢ average entry) sits below the breakeven its entry prices imply, so it is sold as coverage, not as an edge.

What it is

• A Telegram alert feed for Kalshi's Bitcoin up/down markets that open every 15 minutes (series KXBTC15M). On most windows, about two minutes before the close, it sends our model's read of which side settles, the live Kalshi price for that side and a link to the market.
• Separate in-game alert feeds for Kalshi NFL, MLB and NBA markets, each sold while its season runs.
• Graded in public. Every alert is logged when it fires and graded at settlement, losses included, in the results log and results.csv. Bitcoin calls also post as graded recaps every 3 hours in the free @DegenHedgeProof Telegram channel.
• $4.99 a month per feed after a 30-day free trial. A card is required, nothing is charged today, and you can cancel any time.
• Original research on these markets with downloadable CSVs, and an open dataset (CC BY 4.0) on Hugging Face.
• A service of EPWH, LLC, a Rhode Island limited liability company.

What it is not

• Not an edge. The Bitcoin record is 91.2% at a 91.7¢ average entry, and that price is the breakeven win rate, so the record sits below breakeven before Kalshi's fees and further below after.
• Not advice. Informational and entertainment use only. Nothing here is financial, investment or betting advice, and any single alert can lose the whole stake.
• Not a trading bot. It never places trades, never holds your money and never connects to your Kalshi account. What you do with an alert is your decision.
• Not Kalshi. DegenHedge is an independent service and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
• Not for anyone under 18 (some platforms require 21). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

What You're Buying

A signal subscription, not a picks service. The sports alerts identify moments when a prediction-market price disagrees with our model's read of the scoreboard. The BTC alerts send our model's read about two minutes before each 15-minute window closes, whatever the price. Every one of them goes into a public log that is graded at settlement, losses included. We do not claim the price will move toward us. You read the alert, you make the trade. We never tell you to skip — that's your call. We never use the word "lock."

We tell you the truth: about 1 in 5 of our MLB calls will lose 100%, sometimes in clusters, and on BTC, where losses are rarer, each one erases the profit from many wins. Discipline is damage control, not a return. There is no number of bets after which the arithmetic turns in your favour. The full risk reality is on the risk page.

Contact

[email protected] is the inbox. I read it personally.