I'm Eric Hall. I run DegenHedge from a one-person operation in Rhode Island. I'm an attorney by training — securities and commercial — but I spend most of my time on the engineering side: the Bayesian model that runs the BTC signals, the Goldman-Stern normal-CDF calibration behind the NBA alerts, the 2,232-state empirical table behind MLB.
DegenHedge exists because I got tired of two things in the prediction-market space: (1) products that promise edges they can't substantiate, and (2) products that hide their methodology so you can't tell whether the edge is real. So I built the opposite — publish the math, publish the live track record, refresh the stats every 30 seconds, and let people decide whether the methodology is sound.
The product I want to build is the one a sharp bettor would respect and a securities lawyer would clear. Those are the same product.
A signal subscription, not a picks service. The alerts identify moments when prediction-market prices haven't caught up to what the scoreboard or the order book is showing. You read the alert, you make the trade. We never tell you to skip — that's your call. We never use the word "lock."
We tell you the truth: about one in seven of these will lose 100%, sometimes in clusters. The long-term expected-value math works only if you act on enough of them, size them correctly, and have the discipline to keep going through a losing streak. The full risk reality is in The Method.
[email protected] is the inbox. I read it personally.
If the methodology is what you came for, that lives on a separate page.
Read The Method →