During the season, our Goldman-Stern win probability model watches every NBA game in real time. When the model sees a gap between what's happening on the court and what Kalshi is pricing — you get an alert.
Notify me at tip-offGoldman-Stern normal CDF model calibrated from 3,685 NBA games. Computes P(home wins) from the current score and time remaining.
Live Kalshi prices are fetched every 60 seconds via API. The gap between model probability and Kalshi's market price is the signal.
When the model probability is at least 60% and the difference versus the Kalshi price exceeds 8 percentage points, you get a Telegram alert.
The alert is informational — to act on it you place the bet yourself on Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated US exchange our model is priced against and every alert deep-links to. You'll need a Kalshi account (free to open, available in most states).
Every signal can lose 100% of your stake. Upsets happen, leads collapse, overtime changes everything, and a model that reads the market well most of the time will still be wrong, sometimes several times in a row. Volume does not fix that. More alerts only help if each one is priced better than it settles, and we cannot show you that it is. We publish no NBA win rate at all, and on our longest live record, MLB, 78.8% winners at a median entry of 80¢ sits close to breakeven before fees. Size for that, not for the win rate. If you cannot afford to lose five in a row at your chosen stake, that stake is too large.
The NBA model is calibrated from 3,685 historical games but, in practice, functions as a fast state reader: it registers on-court events quickly and reports where its number sits relative to the market price, which is not the same thing as independent predictive skill and is not a claim that the price will move. We publish no NBA win rate. The live NBA log covers a single partial season, and the entry prices behind it are being re-derived from the live pipeline, so any rate we quoted would be a number we cannot stand behind or pair with the price you would have paid. NBA alerts and the public NBA record open at tip-off in late October. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with capital you can afford to lose.
Read the full model details → · Why we publish no NBA rate →
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