During the season, our Goldman-Stern win probability model watches every NBA game in real time. When the model sees a gap between what's happening on the court and what Kalshi is pricing — you get an alert.
Start NBA Alerts — $29.99/moGoldman-Stern normal CDF model calibrated from 3,685 NBA games. Computes P(home wins) from the current score and time remaining.
Live Kalshi prices are fetched every 60 seconds via API. The gap between model probability and Kalshi's market price is the signal.
When model confidence ≥ 60% and the gap versus the Kalshi price exceeds 8 percentage points, you get a Telegram alert.
Trade on Kalshi or use the signal on any sportsbook. We provide the edge — you execute where you have an account.
Every signal can lose. Sports betting is inherently unpredictable — upsets happen, leads collapse, overtime changes everything. Our model works over many bets with disciplined sizing, not on any single game. If you can’t afford to lose 5 in a row at your chosen bet size, you’re betting too much.
The NBA model is calibrated from 3,685 historical games but, in practice, functions as a fast Kalshi-lag detector. The 78.2% live win rate reflects the model reacting to on-court events faster than the market re-prices — not independent predictive skill. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet only with capital you can afford to lose.
Read the full model details → · What our first 55 graded NBA games showed →Subscribe and you're set for opening night — the NBA is in its offseason, so alerts start firing when live games resume in late October. Paid via Stripe, delivered through @degenhedgeNBAbot on Telegram.