On Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets (series KXBTC15M), a settlement exactly equal to the strike resolves Yes, meaning Up. The rule says Yes if the 60-second BRTI average at the close "is at least" the strike, Kalshi's contract terms define "at least X" as "X or greater", and every market in our sample carries the strike type "greater or equal". Polymarket's 5-minute markets also give a tie to Up.
In practice a true tie has not happened. Across 24,941 settled windows from January 10 to October 4, 2026, read from Kalshi's public market records, none settled exactly on the strike. The closest finished one cent away, twice. But near-misses are common: 1 window in 116 settled within $1 of the strike, and 1 in 22 within $5.
Three documents say the same thing.
strike_type: greater_or_equal.Both numbers are rounded to the cent. Kalshi's notes say the final value is "the average of these prices, rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places", and no settlement value in the sample has more than two decimals. The strike is the same kind of average, taken over the 60 seconds before the window opens, and in 24,906 of 24,910 consecutive pairs it equals the previous window's settlement value to the cent (the four exceptions are described in our integrity study).
What if there is no data? The contract terms also say: "If no data is available or incomplete on the Expiration Date at the Expiration Time, then affected strikes resolve to No." That is a separate case from a tie, and we cannot see it in the public record: 363 windows in this period have no published settlement value, but they resolved 189 Yes and 174 No, so they look like gaps in the public record rather than "no data" outcomes.
Polymarket is the same on ties. Its 5-minute Bitcoin markets resolve Up if the closing Chainlink price is "greater than or equal to" the opening one. See Polymarket 5-minute vs Kalshi 15-minute.
Official settlement value against official strike, every window with both published.
| Settled within this distance of the strike | Windows | Share | About 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly on it ($0.00) | 0 | 0% | |
| 1 cent | 2 | 0.01% | 12,470 |
| 10 cents | 18 | 0.07% | 1,386 |
| $1 | 215 | 0.86% | 116 |
| $5 | 1,145 | 4.59% | 22 |
| $10 | 2,261 | 9.07% | 11 |
| $25 | 5,397 | 21.64% | 5 |
| $50 | 9,869 | 39.57% | 3 |
| $100 | 15,984 | 64.09% | 2 |
floor_strike and expiration_value. 24,941 windows from January 10, 2026 (when both sides of the rule became 60-second averages) to October 4, 2026; windows with no published strike or settlement value, and two with a strike published 10,000 times too small, are left out. The median window settled $67.78 (0.095%) from its strike.The two closest windows settled one cent below the strike, on June 9 and June 13, 2026, and both resolved No. Of the 215 windows that finished within $1, 110 resolved Yes and 105 No: inside a dollar, it is a coin flip.
How often a window ends near the line depends on how much Bitcoin is moving. In February and March 2026 about 2.7% of windows finished within $5; in August, the calmest full month in the sample, 8.00% did. Our time-of-day study shows the same pattern by hour and by weekday.
What near-strike windows looked like three minutes before the close.
We matched 18,300 of these windows to our own log, which records Bitcoin's price and the Kalshi ask about three minutes (median 170 seconds) before each close. Of the 946 windows that went on to settle within $5 of the strike, the side Bitcoin was on three minutes out lost 44.2% of the time. Across every other window it lost 10.6%.
These were not all obvious coin flips at the time. In the median near-strike window Bitcoin was $13.48 from the strike three minutes out, and in 27.0% of them it was $25 or more away. The approximate price of the side Bitcoin was on was 72¢ at the median, and 35.8% were priced at 80¢ or more.
Close finishes are also where your chart is least reliable. Within $5 of the strike, a Coinbase/Kraken spot read at the close pointed the opposite way from Kalshi's result 39.3% of the time (see how Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets settle). If a window is that close, the settlement value Kalshi publishes is the only answer.
The strike was not always an average.
From December 10, 2025 to January 10, 2026, the 2,451 KXBTC15M markets in Kalshi's records defined the strike as "the price of Bitcoin at [time] according to CF Benchmarks", while the close was already a 60-second average. Most of those markets have no settlement value published in the API, which is why this study starts on January 10, 2026, when both sides became 60-second averages. Every market since then uses the same wording.
A measurement, not a recommendation.
Related: are Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets rigged?, how they settle, and fees and breakeven.
The market resolves Yes, meaning Up. Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin rule resolves Yes if the 60-second BRTI average at the close is "at least" the strike, and Kalshi's crypto contract terms define "at least X" as "X or greater". Every KXBTC15M market from January 10 to October 4, 2026 carries the strike type greater_or_equal.
In our sample, never. None of 24,941 settled windows from January 10 to October 4, 2026 settled exactly on the strike. Two settled one cent away, 18 within 10 cents, 215 within $1 (about 1 in 116) and 1,145 within $5 (about 1 in 22).
No. Since January 10, 2026 the strike is the simple average of 60 seconds of the CF Benchmarks BRTI before the window opens, rounded to the cent. In 24,906 of 24,910 consecutive pairs it equals the previous window's settlement value exactly.
Kalshi's crypto contract terms say: "If no data is available or incomplete on the Expiration Date at the Expiration Time, then affected strikes resolve to No." Kalshi can also review an outcome under its rulebook before settlement.
Yes. Polymarket's 5-minute Bitcoin markets resolve Up when the closing Chainlink price is greater than or equal to the opening one.
Usually because the window finished close to the line. Kalshi settles on a 60-second BRTI average, not a single exchange tick. When the finish was within $5 of the strike, a Coinbase/Kraken spot read at the close pointed the wrong way 39.3% of the time in our data, and the side Bitcoin was on three minutes earlier lost 44.2% of the time.
Every number above can be rebuilt from Kalshi's public API.
Every settled KXBTC15M market in Kalshi's public API (live and historical tiers) that closed from January 10 to October 4, 2026 and has both a strike (floor_strike) and a settlement value (expiration_value): 24,941 windows. Read October 5, 2026.
Finding 2 joins those windows to our own logger, which reads Bitcoin spot (Coinbase/Kraken) and the Kalshi order book about three minutes before each close. The side Bitcoin was on is measured against Kalshi's official strike.
We cannot recompute the BRTI ourselves; we use the settlement values Kalshi publishes. Nothing here measures whether any price was worth paying.
/historical/markets tier, read October 5, 2026Citations welcome; the CSV above is the primary source and this page is the canonical writeup. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. Our free Telegram proof channel carries MLB and NFL calls; Bitcoin signals are graded in the log instead.
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