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Around-the-clock monitoring, delivered to Telegram. Our current BTC win rate is close to the breakeven level at recorded entry prices, though still below it before fees. This subscription does not establish a profitable trading edge. Any signal can lose 100% of your stake.
5:57 AM ET · settled at 6:00 AM ET
- Kalshi ask when logged
- 85¢
- Our model estimate
- 86.5%
Our estimate has historically been optimistic. A disagreement with the price does not establish an edge.
LOSS. The called side settled at $0. An 85¢ entry would lose its full cost, before fees.
KXBTC15M-26OCT150600-00
Reconstructed from the public log, not a Telegram screenshot or a trade fill. Inspect the full record · Example data
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24-second BTC walkthrough · captions included
See BTC alerts in 24 seconds.
See the market, our model’s read and the logged ask in one alert. You choose whether to open the market and trade.
The video reconstructs actual historical examples from our public log, including a loss and a win. These are demonstrations, not trade fills or a performance estimate. No demonstrated profitable edge.
Eligible new customers: 30 days free, card required, then $4.99/month for this feed until canceled.
Captions are visible in the picture; optional soft music. Reconstructed from the public log, not a Telegram recording.
Read the video transcript and example sources
See the market, our model’s read and the logged ask in one alert. You choose whether to open the market and trade. DegenHedge sends alerts; you place any trade yourself.
October 15, 2026, 5:57 AM ET: BTC UP called at an 85¢ logged ask, model estimate 86.5%. The called side lost and settled at $0 at 6:00 AM ET. Market: KXBTC15M-26OCT150600-00.
October 15, 2026, 10:27 AM ET: BTC UP called at an 86¢ logged ask. The called side won and settled at $1 at 10:30 AM ET. Market: KXBTC15M-26OCT151030-30.
Every call, including losses, is available in the public record and results CSV. A model estimate does not establish an edge. The two examples are not a representative performance sample.
The closing offer is 30 days free for eligible new customers, card required, then $4.99/month for this feed until canceled. Cancel before trial end to pay $0. 18+. Any trade can lose the entire stake. Informational only; not betting advice. Independent of Kalshi.
All four consecutive windows · November 1, 2026
Replay one complete BTC hour
8–9 AM Eastern (EST): three wins and one loss, and the hour still lost money at the logged prices. Reconstructed from our logs, not Telegram screenshots or trade fills. All four windows are shown, including the loss.
4 marked for sending · 0 not marked · 0 missing window records. These are log statuses, not confirmation of phone delivery. One hour does not represent the full record.
-
8:00–8:15 AM EST
Alert marked for sending
- Model side
- UP
- Ask in the log
- 100¢ Boundary quote in source log; not evidence of an executable entry. Buying at $1.00 pays nothing, even on a win.
- Logged at
- Logged 173.6 seconds before close
- Recorded grade
- WINFinal side: UP
KXBTC15M-26NOV010815-15
-
8:15–8:30 AM EST
Alert marked for sending
- Model side
- DOWN
- Ask in the log
- 95¢
- Logged at
- Logged 165.7 seconds before close
- Recorded grade
- WINFinal side: DOWN
KXBTC15M-26NOV010830-30
-
8:30–8:45 AM EST
Alert marked for sending
- Model side
- DOWN
- Ask in the log
- 90¢
- Logged at
- Logged 168.8 seconds before close
- Recorded grade
- WINFinal side: DOWN
KXBTC15M-26NOV010845-45
-
8:45–9:00 AM EST
Alert marked for sending
- Model side
- DOWN
- Ask in the log
- 85¢
- Logged at
- Logged 173.4 seconds before close
- Recorded grade
- LOSSFinal side: UP
KXBTC15M-26NOV010900-00
What those prices mean. A winning contract pays $1. At the logged asks, one contract per alert would have gained 0¢ (the 100¢ quote leaves nothing to win), 5¢ and 10¢ on the three wins, and lost 85¢ on the loss. That is 70¢ down for the hour before fees, and about 73¢ down after Kalshi's trading fee of roughly 1¢ per contract. Losses at high prices are large and wins are small. These are logged quotes, not fills.
How we selected this hour and what the logs can prove
We fixed the hour before reading its outcomes: the latest complete Eastern clock hour at least 48 hours old when we selected it on November 3 at 9:24 AM EST, outside scheduled maintenance. We did not change the hour after seeing the results.
“Marked for sending” means the system's send step returned. It does not confirm a message reached Telegram or your phone. Your alert filter can hold messages back. A missing record would be unknown, not a skipped alert. Both source files are written by the same notifier; they are not independent proof of delivery.
Times are shown to the second; the source file keeps fractional seconds. The first window's 100¢ quote is exactly what the log contains. It does not prove you could enter at that price. A winning contract settles at $1, so a 100¢ cost would leave no gain before fees. No fills are inferred here.
The broader BTC record remains below breakeven before fees. A high win count is not a return. This hour is a demonstration of what the logs contain, not evidence of a profitable edge. Any trade can lose the entire stake.
Inspect the complete BTC record · Read this hour's source data and method
Get future BTC alerts in Telegram
Eligible new subscribers: 30 days free, card required, then $4.99/month for this feed until canceled. Cancel before trial end to pay $0. Returning trial users see any amount due before checkout. Alerts fire on most windows, subject to filters. 18+ · 1-800-GAMBLER.
An alert you can inspect in seconds
Read the market and side
The alert identifies the exact BTC window and our model's UP or DOWN read. The market link lets you inspect the current offer yourself.
Compare the price
Read the live ask beside our estimate. Prices can change before you act. A bigger model difference is not a promise of a better trade.
Check the outcome
Every call is graded in the public record, including losses. The examples above show both outcomes; the full log lets you look beyond them.
Know what you’re paying for
You’re buying ongoing market monitoring and Telegram delivery. The feed runs around the clock apart from exchange maintenance and fires on most windows. Expect dozens of alerts a day; mute the bot when you’re not following the market. It does not place trades or connect to your Kalshi account.
91.2% wins at a 91.7¢ average entry.
Snapshot: 12,201 priced, graded BTC calls, including 1,077 losses, as of October 15, 2026. At those prices, the sample's win rate was close to the breakeven level, though still below it before fees. High win rates alone do not mean profit.
Read the current results · Understand fees and breakevenAlready use Kalshi and Telegram? This is a way to follow the windows without keeping the market page open. Prefer to inspect the data first? Use the free current-window tool or follow free graded recaps.
A week of BTC signal logs, on record
October 26–November 1, 2026 (UTC). This is a dated sample of signal records, separate from the trading-performance record.
664 windows recorded
15-minute windows where our system logged a signal record during the week.
535 marked for sending
Windows where our system ran its send step. Your own alert filter can still hold some back.
Logged a median 169.9 seconds before close
That is when our system wrote the signal down, before sending it. Your phone gets it later, and we do not measure how much later.
This measures when a signal was logged, not when it reached your phone. Elsewhere we say alerts go out about two minutes before close. That rounder figure is deliberately cautious, because arrival on your phone is not measured. Telegram acceptance, device delivery and read time are not measured here. The logs do not establish a percentage of all eligible exchange windows covered, or a count of missed eligible alerts.
See the counts, method and limits
129 recorded windows were not marked alerted; this can include model/filter exclusions and is not a count of delivery failures. Recorded windows by UTC day: October 26: 96; 27: 96; 28: 96; 29: 88; 30: 96; 31: 96; November 1: 96.
Among the 535 flagged windows, record creation was 161.8–174.6 seconds before the ticker’s close; 0 flagged records were created at or after close. Sending can finish later. Counts use distinct ticker/UTC-close pairs and handle the November 1 daylight-saving change.
The dataset omits some windows, including no-market or invalid-price skips. The send routine’s return flag does not prove successful Telegram delivery. This historical sample is not a future timing or delivery guarantee.
Download the dated counts and methodology (JSON) · Inspect the separate graded trading record
From checkout to your first alert
- Check your trial eligibility and review the exact offer in Stripe.
- Open the Telegram link on the confirmation page and press Start. Checkout alone does not turn on delivery.
- Inspect the next eligible alert. Use /status to check your subscription or /manage to cancel.
Read the first-week guide for connection help, alert examples and billing steps.
New subscribers pay $0 today for a 30-day trial, then $4.99/month until canceled. Returning subscribers who have used a trial see $4.99 due today before proceeding. Your checkout-confirmed trial date is honored even if you link Telegram later. We send a reminder before a trial's first charge.
A few practical details
What can I see for free, and what does the BTC subscription add?
Free graded BTC recaps are posted to @DegenHedgeProof every three hours, after every window in that block has closed. They include losing calls, so you can inspect past alerts without subscribing.
The BTC subscription sends our model’s read, the market price and a market link to Telegram about two minutes before most windows close. It does not place trades, and earlier delivery does not establish a profitable edge.
Eligible new customers get a 30-day trial, with a card required, then $4.99/month for the BTC feed until canceled. Cancel before the trial ends to pay $0.
Can I cancel during the trial?
Yes. Cancel before the trial ends and pay nothing. Use your account page, send /manage to the bot, or contact [email protected]. After payment, cancellation stops the next renewal; the current month is not refunded except as required by law.
Do I need Telegram and a Kalshi account?
Telegram receives the alerts. A Kalshi account and platform eligibility are needed to trade the linked markets. DegenHedge never trades for you.