Risk Disclosure
Last updated: August 22, 2026
This page is written to be read, not to be survived. It is the plainest statement we can make of what DegenHedge is, what our published numbers do and do not mean, and how you should expect to lose money.
If any sentence here conflicts with something you read in our marketing, in an affiliate's post, or anywhere else, this page controls. If an affiliate or partner ever describes us in a way that contradicts it, they are violating our terms — tell us.
1. What this service is
DegenHedge publishes in-game alerts for markets on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction exchange. An alert names a market, the side our model flags, and the size of the gap between our model's estimate and the market's price at that moment.
It is an information and entertainment tool for people who are already trading these markets. You are paying for speed and for a permanent public record — not for a profit promise. That is the whole product, stated as plainly as we know how.
- Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Nothing we publish is a recommendation to trade.
- Not personalized. Every subscriber receives the identical alert. We do not answer "what should I do here," we do not suggest position sizes, and we do not tailor anything to your situation or bankroll.
- Not a sportsbook. We never touch your money, hold funds, accept wagers, or place trades. Whatever you do at Kalshi is your decision in your account.
- Not affiliated with Kalshi or endorsed by them.
- Not regulated or licensed. Kalshi is the regulated entity. DegenHedge is a publisher. Our founder being an attorney does not make this service registered, licensed, or compliant with anything.
2. You can lose 100% of any individual stake
A Kalshi contract is a $1 binary. You buy at some price under $1; if the outcome resolves your way you collect $1, and if it doesn't you get nothing. There is no partial credit and no stop-loss that saves you at settlement.
That makes the trade asymmetric, and the asymmetry gets worse the more you pay:
| You buy at | If you win | If you lose | Win rate just to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.50 | +$0.50 | −$0.50 | 50% |
| $0.62 | +$0.38 | −$0.62 | 62% |
| $0.80 | +$0.20 | −$0.80 | 80% |
| $0.90 | +$0.10 | −$0.90 | 90% |
| $0.95 | +$0.05 | −$0.95 | 95% |
Read the right-hand column carefully. It is the number that decides whether a win rate means anything at all.
3. A win rate without its entry price tells you nothing
This is the single most important thing on this page, and it is the reason we publish entry prices next to every win rate we quote.
Our logged MLB record is strong on its face: 569 wins and 136 losses across 705 graded games — about 80.7% (as of August 22, 2026; the live figure moves daily and is published on the record page). That number looks like a reason to subscribe. Now put it next to the price:
Winning about 80% of the time on contracts that cost about 80 cents is, near enough, what the price already implied. The market was pricing those games roughly correctly. After exchange fees, a subscriber who mechanically traded every MLB alert would not have made money on the record to date.
Our MLB win rate is not evidence that you will profit, and we will not pretend otherwise. We sell the MLB feed as an information tool — speed, and a record you can audit — not as an income product. If you want a service that promises profit, this is not it, and you should be suspicious of anyone in this category who does.
The same test applies everywhere. Our BTC feed carries a very high headline win rate at entry prices that frequently sit near 98¢, which is exactly the pattern above in a more extreme form. Our NBA log is the one place our own numbers suggest a positive edge after fees — and even there the sample is a single partial season, self-logged, with a confidence interval that still includes zero. Our NFL feed launches with no live record at all, on purpose; we will not market a backtest.
When we say "edge," we mean one specific thing: the measured gap between our model's estimate and the market's price at the moment the alert fires. It is an input, not a promised outcome. We say "edge," never "confidence."
4. Expect to lose regularly, and in clusters
Even at an 80% hit rate, roughly one in five alerts loses — and that loss is the entire stake. Losses do not arrive politely spaced out. Two in a row at that rate happens about once every 25 alerts. Longer streaks happen. Variance feels personal, but each signal is independent and the math does not care which ones lose.
Some practical consequences we would rather state than have you discover:
- Someone who takes two alerts and quits after a loss has learned nothing about the model, only about variance.
- A losing streak will eventually arrive. If your stake sizing cannot absorb one, you are out of the game before any long-run math could matter.
- Adding your own instinct on top of a signal — sitting out the ones you dislike, doubling the ones you love — makes you a different bettor than the one the record describes.
We deliberately do not tell you how much to stake. That would be personalized advice, and we do not give it.
5. Verify all of it yourself
Every alert we send is mirrored to a free public Telegram channel — t.me/DegenHedgeProof — with the side visible after a 12-minute delay, the result stamped at settlement, and nothing ever deleted. Losses stay up permanently. You can watch the record build for as long as you like before paying us anything, and you should.
You can also read the full methodology, including how the models work and where they are weakest, and check the running record. We publish the losses because a record that hides them is not a record.
6. Eligibility and jurisdiction
You must be 18 or older (or the age of majority where you live, if that is higher). Some platforms require 21+.
Kalshi's sports contracts are not available in every U.S. state, and their availability is subject to ongoing regulatory and legal challenge. Check Kalshi's own eligibility rules for where you live before you subscribe to anything here. You are solely responsible for complying with the laws of your jurisdiction; a subscription to DegenHedge does not make any activity legal where it isn't.
7. If this stops being entertainment
Trading event contracts can be habit-forming and can cause real harm. If it stops being fun, or you find yourself chasing losses or risking money you need, stop and get help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose.
8. Related documents
- Subscriber Acknowledgement — the three things you confirm at checkout.
- The Method — how the models work, and section 06 on risk in more depth.
- Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
- Affiliate program — affiliates are contractually required to link this page or the free log whenever they describe our record, and are prohibited from making profit claims.
Past results — ours included — do not predict future results.