Risk Disclosure
Last updated: October 5, 2026
This page is written to be read, not to be survived. It is the plainest statement we can make of what DegenHedge is, what our published numbers do and do not mean, and how you should expect to lose money.
If any sentence here conflicts with something you read in our marketing, in an affiliate's post, or anywhere else, this page controls. If an affiliate or partner ever describes us in a way that contradicts it, they are violating our terms — tell us.
1. What this service is
DegenHedge publishes alerts for markets on Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated prediction exchange: in-game sports markets and the Bitcoin 15-minute markets. An alert names a market, the side our model flags, our model's estimate and the market's price at that moment. On sports, the alert fires when those two numbers differ by more than our threshold. On BTC it is timed: it goes out about two minutes before each window closes whenever the model leans one side at 60% or more, not because the price looks wrong. Any difference between the two numbers is arithmetic between two estimates, not an amount of money: our own order-book data shows the alerted side does not measurably move after an alert, and our model runs optimistic against settled outcomes.
It is an information and entertainment tool for people who are already trading these markets. You are paying for speed and for a permanent public record — not for a profit promise. That is the whole product, stated as plainly as we know how.
- Not financial, investment, or betting advice. Nothing we publish is a recommendation to trade.
- Not personalized. Every subscriber receives the identical alert. We do not answer "what should I do here," we do not suggest position sizes, and we do not tailor anything to your situation or bankroll.
- Not a sportsbook. We never touch your money, hold funds, accept wagers, or place trades. Whatever you do at Kalshi is your decision in your account.
- Not affiliated with Kalshi or endorsed by them.
- Not regulated or licensed. Kalshi is the regulated entity. DegenHedge is a publisher, and nothing about who runs it makes this service registered, licensed, or compliant with anything.
2. You can lose 100% of any individual stake
A Kalshi contract is a $1 binary. You buy at some price under $1; if the outcome resolves your way you collect $1, and if it doesn't you get nothing. There is no partial credit and no stop-loss that saves you at settlement.
That makes the trade asymmetric, and the asymmetry gets worse the more you pay:
| You buy at | If you win | If you lose | Win rate just to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| $0.50 | +$0.50 | −$0.50 | 50% |
| $0.62 | +$0.38 | −$0.62 | 62% |
| $0.80 | +$0.20 | −$0.80 | 80% |
| $0.90 | +$0.10 | −$0.90 | 90% |
| $0.95 | +$0.05 | −$0.95 | 95% |
Read the right-hand column carefully. It is the number that decides whether a win rate means anything at all.
3. A win rate without its entry price tells you nothing
This is the single most important thing on this page, and it is the reason we publish entry prices next to every win rate we quote.
Our logged MLB record is strong on its face: 749 wins and 200 losses across 949 graded games, 78.9% (these figures self-update from the live log; the record moves daily and is published on the record page). That number looks like a reason to subscribe. Now put it next to the price of the contracts themselves:
Winning 78.9% of the time on contracts that cost about 80 cents is, near enough, what the price already implied. Every other page on this site describes that same result with one phrase, close to breakeven before fees, and this is the page where the arithmetic behind that phrase lives. We do not attach a direction to it. The 80¢ figure is a rounded median across the whole log, not the price you personally paid on any given alert, so the gross margin it implies is close enough to zero that the rounding decides the sign, and the honest statement is that there is no margin worth claiming in either direction. What is not in doubt is the next line of the table: Kalshi trading fees come out of whatever is there. The market was pricing those games roughly correctly, and a subscriber who mechanically traded every MLB alert should not expect the record to date to have made them money.
Our MLB win rate is not evidence that you will profit, and we will not pretend otherwise. We sell the MLB feed as an information tool — speed, and a record you can audit — not as an income product. If you want a service that promises profit, this is not it, and you should be suspicious of anyone in this category who does.
The same test applies everywhere. Our BTC feed carries a very high headline win rate, 91.2% across 12,160 priced signals, at a 91.7¢ average entry (96¢ median). Breakeven at that price is 91.7%, so the record sits below breakeven before fees and further below after: exactly the pattern above, in a more extreme form. Our NBA log covers a single partial season, is self-logged, and its entry prices are being re-derived, so we publish no NBA win rate and make no claim about NBA edge at all. Our NFL feed has been live since September 9 and its record is still small; it is graded in public on the results page beside its average entry price. We do publish the season replay behind it, in full and with its caveats, on the research page. We do not put a backtest number on the page that takes your card, and wherever we do cite it, it is labelled a backtest, it never travels without its average entry price, and it is never presented as a live record. A replayed season is not evidence of what the live feed will do.
When we say "edge," we mean one specific thing: the measured gap between our model's estimate and the market's price at the moment the alert fires. It is an input, not a promised outcome. We say "edge," never "confidence." On BTC no such gap triggers the alert, so we do not use the word for BTC at all.
4. What the subscription costs, and what that does not buy
Every DegenHedge feed is $4.99 a month, after a 30-day free trial that requires a card and charges nothing until it ends. We priced it low on purpose, and we want to be precise about what "low" means here.
$4.99 a month is roughly the size of one $5 to $20 starting stake. It is a fee: it comes off the top every month whether the month wins or loses, and it is the only money DegenHedge ever receives from you.
A small fee is not a small risk. The subscription price has nothing to do with how much you can lose acting on an alert. It does not shrink the loss on any single call, which is still 100% of whatever you staked, and it does not change the arithmetic in section 3. A month of alerts can cost you $4.99 in fees and lose you many times that at the exchange. We charge $4.99 because that is what an information tool is worth, not because $4.99 is easy to earn back.
The trial works the same way. A free month is free of our fee; it is not free of the risk on any position you open during it. Cancel before the trial ends and you pay us nothing. The results of the trades you placed in the meantime are yours either way.
5. Expect to lose regularly, and in clusters
Even at our roughly one-in-five loss rate, that losing alert takes the entire stake, not a slice of it. Losses do not arrive politely spaced out. Two in a row at that rate happens about once every 25 alerts. Longer streaks happen. Variance feels personal, but each signal is independent and the math does not care which ones lose.
Some practical consequences we would rather state than have you discover:
- Someone who takes two alerts and quits after a loss has learned nothing about the model, only about variance.
- A losing streak will eventually arrive. If your stake sizing cannot absorb one, you are out of the game before any long-run math could matter.
- Adding your own instinct on top of a signal — sitting out the ones you dislike, doubling the ones you love — makes you a different bettor than the one the record describes.
We deliberately do not tell you how much to stake. That would be personalized advice, and we do not give it.
6. Verify all of it yourself
Our MLB and NFL alerts are mirrored to a free public Telegram channel, t.me/DegenHedgeProof: NFL with the side visible after a 12-minute delay, MLB as a locked post about 10 minutes after it fires with the side revealed at game end. Results are stamped at settlement and nothing is ever deleted. BTC calls post there as graded recaps every 3 hours after every window in the 3-hour block has closed, never live, and every BTC call is also in the public results log. NBA alerts are not posted there. Losses stay up permanently. You can watch the record build for as long as you like before paying us anything, and you should.
You can also read the full methodology, including how the models work and where they are weakest, and check the running record. We publish the losses because a record that hides them is not a record.
7. Eligibility and jurisdiction
You must be 18 or older (or the age of majority where you live, if that is higher). Some platforms require 21+.
Kalshi's sports contracts are not available in every U.S. state, and their availability is subject to ongoing regulatory and legal challenge. Check Kalshi's own eligibility rules for where you live before you subscribe to anything here. You are solely responsible for complying with the laws of your jurisdiction; a subscription to DegenHedge does not make any activity legal where it isn't.
8. If this stops being entertainment
Trading event contracts can be habit-forming and can cause real harm. If it stops being fun, or you find yourself chasing losses or risking money you need, stop and get help: call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, or visit ncpgambling.org. Never trade money you cannot afford to lose.
9. Related documents
- Subscriber Acknowledgement: the four things you confirm at checkout, including how the free trial bills.
- The Method — how the models work, and section 06 on risk in more depth.
- Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.
- Affiliate program — affiliates are contractually required to link this page or the free log whenever they describe our record, and are prohibited from making profit claims.
Past results — ours included — do not predict future results.