Not in the sense of an hour where the price is wrong. We tested the Kalshi ask against the result in each of the 24 hours of the day, and no hour beat or missed its price by more than chance once you allow for testing 24 hours. Up and Down were also balanced in every hour.
What does change by hour is the market itself. Across 24,941 settled windows from January 10 to October 4, 2026, the 10 to 11 AM ET hour had the largest moves (median 0.152%, about $110) and the fewest knife-edge finishes (7.9% within 0.02% of the strike). The hours from 4 to 7 AM ET were the quietest, with about half the trading of late evening. Saturdays had the most knife-edge finishes of any day, 21.7%.
Each row is the set of windows that closed in that Eastern-time hour.
| Window closes (ET) | Share of contracts traded | Average move, strike to settlement | Ended within 0.02% of strike | 1¢ spread | Logged ask vs result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Midnight to 1 AM | 5.0% | $83 | 15.3% | 89% | -0.1 pts |
| 1 AM to 2 AM | 4.9% | $90 | 15.3% | 88% | -1.2 pts |
| 2 AM to 3 AM | 4.3% | $88 | 14.2% | 89% | +0.2 pts |
| 3 AM to 4 AM | 3.2% | $86 | 15.4% | 90% | +1.3 pts |
| 4 AM to 5 AM | 2.6% | $98 | 11.8% | 89% | -0.8 pts |
| 5 AM to 6 AM | 2.4% | $89 | 15.4% | 89% | -1.7 pts |
| 6 AM to 7 AM | 2.4% | $84 | 14.9% | 90% | -2.5 pts |
| 7 AM to 8 AM | 2.5% | $88 | 14.7% | 91% | +0.1 pts |
| 8 AM to 9 AM | 2.9% | $103 | 13.5% | 90% | -1.9 pts |
| 9 AM to 10 AM | 3.4% | $139 | 11.9% | 90% | +1.0 pts |
| 10 AM to 11 AM | 4.0% | $184 | 7.9% | 90% | +0.4 pts |
| 11 AM to Noon | 4.3% | $159 | 8.4% | 90% | -1.6 pts |
| Noon to 1 PM | 4.5% | $132 | 8.3% | 90% | +0.9 pts |
| 1 PM to 2 PM | 4.7% | $123 | 10.8% | 91% | -1.7 pts |
| 2 PM to 3 PM | 4.7% | $112 | 11.6% | 90% | +1.0 pts |
| 3 PM to 4 PM | 4.7% | $104 | 12.3% | 91% | -1.0 pts |
| 4 PM to 5 PM | 4.9% | $90 | 15.2% | 89% | -0.8 pts |
| 5 PM to 6 PM | 4.9% | $95 | 15.0% | 89% | -1.5 pts |
| 6 PM to 7 PM | 4.9% | $105 | 14.2% | 90% | -1.9 pts |
| 7 PM to 8 PM | 5.0% | $101 | 13.9% | 90% | -2.0 pts |
| 8 PM to 9 PM | 5.0% | $108 | 13.5% | 89% | -2.3 pts |
| 9 PM to 10 PM | 4.9% | $111 | 11.2% | 90% | -0.2 pts |
| 10 PM to 11 PM | 5.0% | $108 | 11.3% | 90% | -1.3 pts |
| 11 PM to Midnight | 5.0% | $92 | 12.1% | 90% | -0.2 pts |
Moves follow the US morning. The median 15-minute move rose from about 0.08% overnight to 0.152% in the 10 AM hour and 0.144% in the 11 AM hour, then eased through the afternoon. Bigger moves mean fewer windows that finish right on the line, which is why the 10 AM hour had the lowest near-flat share.
Trading follows the evening. The hours from 10 PM to 1 AM ET each carried about 5% of all contracts traded. The 5 AM and 6 AM hours carried 2.4% each. The 3 and 4 AM hours also have fewer windows, about 925 instead of about 1,050, because Kalshi lists scheduled maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM ET.
Volume grew a lot. The median window traded about 15,500 contracts in January 2026 and about 2.34 million in September. Each hour's share above is computed over the whole period, so recent months dominate it.
Weekends are calmer, and calm means more coin flips.
| Day (ET) | Windows | Median contracts per window | Average move | Ended within 0.02% of strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3,542 | 381,732 | $118 | 10.1% |
| Tuesday | 3,565 | 377,862 | $116 | 10.5% |
| Wednesday | 3,642 | 400,845 | $123 | 9.4% |
| Thursday | 3,306 | 432,332 | $126 | 9.3% |
| Friday | 3,632 | 459,574 | $110 | 12.3% |
| Saturday | 3,633 | 400,760 | $67 | 21.7% |
| Sunday | 3,621 | 408,467 | $95 | 16.1% |
Saturday's median move, 0.053%, was about half of Monday's, 0.112%, and more than one Saturday window in five finished within 0.02% of the strike. Those are the windows where a spot chart is least reliable and where the side that was ahead late loses most often (see what happens at exactly the strike).
The question behind "best time of day" is usually whether some hour is mispriced.
In the last column of the hour table, the gap between how often the logged side won and its average ask ranged from -2.5 to +1.3 points. With 24 hours tested, a gap needs to be about 3.08 standard errors from zero before it means anything; the largest was 2.09 (6 to 7 AM ET). Most hours sat a point or two below zero, which is the spread a buyer pays. The share of windows settling Up was also balanced in every hour: the largest deviation from 50% was 54.0% Up in the 4 AM hour, 2.43 standard errors, below the same bar.
So the hour changes how big and how busy the market is, not whether its price is honest. A quiet hour gives you more knife-edge windows at coin-flip prices. A busy hour gives you bigger moves that the price follows.
A measurement, not a recommendation.
Related: how Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets settle (weekend and volatility regimes), are they rigged?, and fees and breakeven.
There is no hour where the price was wrong in our data. Across the 24 hours of the day, the Kalshi ask about three minutes before the close tracked how often that side won within chance once you allow for testing 24 hours. What differs by hour is size and activity: the 10 to 11 AM ET hour had the largest moves, and 4 to 7 AM ET the least trading.
In late evening Eastern time. From January 10 to October 4, 2026, the hours from 10 PM to 1 AM ET each carried about 5% of all contracts traded, and the 5 AM and 6 AM hours about 2.4% each. Volume also grew sharply over the year: the median window traded about 15,500 contracts in January 2026 and about 2.34 million in September.
During the US morning. The median move from strike to settlement was 0.152% in windows closing between 10 and 11 AM ET, against about 0.08% overnight. Saturdays were the calmest day, with a median move of 0.053%.
They are calmer. 21.7% of Saturday windows and 16.1% of Sunday windows ended within 0.02% of the strike, against 9.3% to 12.3% on weekdays. Near-flat finishes are the closest thing to a coin flip in these markets.
Not detectably. The share of 15-minute windows that settled Up stayed near 50% in every hour; the largest deviation, 54.0% Up in the 4 AM ET hour, was 2.43 standard errors from even, below the 3.08 bar for testing 24 hours.
Kalshi lists trading as 24/7 apart from scheduled maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM ET, which is why the 3 AM and 4 AM hours have fewer windows in our sample.
How each number was produced.
Strike, settlement value, result and contracts traded for every settled KXBTC15M market, from Kalshi's public API (live and historical tiers), read October 5, 2026. Hours are US Eastern with daylight saving applied, keyed on each window's close.
Spreads come from Kalshi's public one-minute candlesticks (closing Yes bid and Yes ask per minute). The calibration column uses our own logged ask, one minus the best opposing bid in Kalshi's order book, about three minutes before the close.
No hour-by-hour profit figure. The price tracked the result in every hour, and our own feed's record sits below breakeven overall (see the fee study).
Citations welcome; the CSV above is the primary source and this page is the canonical writeup. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The free, verifiable part comes first.
Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. Our free Telegram proof channel carries MLB and NFL calls; Bitcoin signals are graded in the log instead.
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