Yes, about once in every 100. On Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin markets we logged 2,833 windows where the ask for a side was 99¢ about three minutes before the close. That side lost 28 times, 0.99%, almost exactly the 1% the price implies. At 98¢ it lost 2.22%; at 97¢, 2.40%.
The arithmetic is what bites. A 99¢ contract pays 1¢ when it wins and costs 99¢ when it loses, so one loss erases 99 wins. On a single contract Kalshi's taker fee rounds up to a full 1¢, which is the entire profit a 99¢ win can make. Losses at these prices were mostly close calls: 52 of the 87 losing sides priced 97 to 99¢ settled within $25 of the strike, where the 60-second index average decides it.
Our logged ask, graded on Kalshi's result, at two points before the close.
| Ask paid | ~3 min left: windows | lost | loss rate (95% range) | ~5 min left: windows | loss rate | Loss rate the price implies |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90 to 94¢ | 2,071 | 182 | 8.79% (7.6 to 10.1) | 2,991 | 6.99% | 7.81% |
| 95¢ | 547 | 36 | 6.58% (4.8 to 9.0) | 736 | 4.62% | 5.00% |
| 96¢ | 823 | 25 | 3.04% (2.1 to 4.4) | 981 | 3.47% | 4.00% |
| 97¢ | 916 | 22 | 2.40% (1.6 to 3.6) | 953 | 2.52% | 3.00% |
| 98¢ | 1,664 | 37 | 2.22% (1.6 to 3.0) | 1,267 | 2.45% | 2.00% |
| 99¢ | 2,833 | 28 | 0.99% (0.7 to 1.4) | 1,052 | 0.57% | 1.00% |
Read across a row and the realized loss rate sits close to what the price implies, a little above it at 95¢ and in the 90 to 94¢ group, a little below it at 96 and 97¢. That is a market pricing its favorites about right. None of these rows is a place where the favorite lost much less often than its price said, which is what you would need for a cheap profit.
Our own paid feed sits inside these numbers. In the sample our fee study uses, its published record bought 2,817 signals at 99¢ and won 99.04% of them, 0.04¢ per contract ahead before fees and 0.96¢ behind after a 1¢ fee. Across all prices the record won 91.21% at a 91.74¢ average entry, below breakeven before fees.
87 sides priced 97 to 99¢ three minutes out went on to lose. We looked at each one.
In all 87, Bitcoin was on the bought side of Kalshi's official strike at the time, a median $72.06 (0.105%) away with a median 169 seconds left. Then it came back. The official settlement value finished a median $17.97 on the wrong side of the strike: 19 of the 87 within $5, 30 within $10 and 52 within $25. For comparison, winning sides at the same prices settled a median $85.33 from the strike.
Some of these losses would not have looked like losses on a chart. In 15 of the 87 our Coinbase/Kraken spot read just after the close still showed the bought side ahead. Kalshi settles on a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks BRTI, and in a close finish that average can sit on the other side of the line from the last tick you saw. Our strike study covers how often windows finish that close.
Kalshi's public one-minute price history, not just the windows we logged.
| Ask reached, at some minute before the last | Sides | Then lost | Loss rate (95% range) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 95¢ or more | 15,844 | 449 | 2.83% (2.59 to 3.10) |
| 97¢ or more | 14,787 | 229 | 1.55% (1.36 to 1.76) |
| 99¢ or more | 11,956 | 46 | 0.38% (0.29 to 0.51) |
Across 18,427 windows with Kalshi price history, a side whose ask touched 99¢ or more at some minute close before the last minute went on to lose 46 times in 11,956, about 1 in 260. That is lower than 1 in 100 because "99¢ or more" includes asks of 99.5¢ to 99.9¢ and touches late in the window. At 95¢ or more the rate was 2.83%, about 1 in 35. A screenshot of a 99¢ price is real; it is still not a certainty.
At the top of the range, small costs are the whole trade.
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × P × (1 − P) per contract, with the order total rounded up to the next cent. At 99¢ that is 0.0693¢ per contract, but a one-contract order rounds up to a full 1¢, the entire payout of a win. On a 100-contract order the rounding nearly disappears: 7¢ total, 0.07¢ each. Our fee and breakeven study works through every price.
Kalshi's market records also list a "tapered deci-cent" price structure for these markets: 0.1¢ steps below 10¢ and above 90¢, whole cents in between. In Kalshi's public one-minute price history from March 24 to October 4, 2026, 83.8% of Yes asks at or above 90¢ were not whole cents. So "99¢" can now mean 99.0 to 99.9¢, and at 99.9¢ a win pays a tenth of a cent.
A measurement, not a recommendation.
Related: fees and breakeven by entry price, are these markets rigged?, and how they settle.
Yes. In our Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute data, sides with a 99¢ ask about three minutes before the close lost 28 of 2,833 times, 0.99%, close to the 1% the price implies. When a 99¢ contract loses, you lose the full 99¢.
99, before fees. A 99¢ contract pays 1¢ profit when it wins and loses 99¢ when it loses. On a single-contract Kalshi order the taker fee rounds up to a full 1¢, which takes the entire profit of a win.
No. In our data the loss rate at each price sat close to what the price implies: 0.99% at 99¢, 2.22% at 98¢ and 2.40% at 97¢. A price that is right about the odds leaves nothing over after the fee.
Usually because Bitcoin came back toward the strike in the last minutes and the window finished close. Of 87 sides priced 97 to 99¢ three minutes out that lost, 52 settled within $25 of the strike. Kalshi settles on a 60-second average of the CF Benchmarks BRTI, so a close finish can go against what your exchange chart showed: in 15 of those 87, our Coinbase/Kraken spot read just after the close still showed the bought side ahead.
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 x P x (1 - P) per contract with the order total rounded up to the next cent. At 99¢ that is 0.0693¢ per contract, so a 1-contract order pays 1¢ and a 100-contract order pays 7¢.
Kalshi's Bitcoin 15-minute markets now quote in 0.1¢ steps above 90¢ and below 10¢, so an ask can be 99.5¢ or 99.9¢. A side with no ask below $1.00 has nothing left to buy.
How each number was produced.
Our logger records one observation per KXBTC15M window about three minutes before the close, and a separate one about five minutes before, with the ask for the side our model picked. Every row is graded on Kalshi's official result from its public API.
Finding 3 uses Kalshi's public one-minute candlesticks (closing Yes bid and Yes ask per minute) for every window from March 24 to October 4, 2026 that has price history. A No ask is one minus the Yes bid. The final minute is excluded.
Strike and settlement value come from Kalshi's public market records, not from our logger.
Citations welcome; the CSV above is the primary source and this page is the canonical writeup. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
The free, verifiable part comes first.
Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. Our free Telegram proof channel carries MLB and NFL calls; Bitcoin signals are graded in the log instead.
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These are 15-minute binary prediction-market contracts. Any single window can lose 100% of your stake. They settle on a 60-second index average, not on the exchange chart you may be watching. A 99¢ contract can still lose 99¢. Nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
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