Calmer, not more predictable. Across 21,759 Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute windows from March 24 to November 8, 2026, weekends settled Up 50.46% of the time and weekdays 49.34%, both a coin flip within normal luck. With 3 minutes left the favorite won 87.61% on weekends at an average price of 88.17 cents, and 88.06% on weekdays at 88.59 cents. On both, it won about what it cost.
The real difference is how often a window ends on the line. 21.4% of weekend windows finished within 0.02% of the strike, against 11.6% on weekdays. Saturday was the calmest day: 24.7% of its windows ended that close.
All figures are frozen on Kalshi KXBTC15M windows that closed from March 24 to November 8, 2026 (US Eastern time).
Every day of the week is close to a coin flip on direction. What moves is how often a window ends right on the strike.
| Day (ET) | Windows | Settled Up | Favorite won, 3 min left | Favorite's average price | Favorite priced 90¢+ | Ended within 0.02% of strike |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 3,072 | 49.19% | 88.18% | 88.92¢ | 66.0% | 11.2% |
| Tuesday | 3,168 | 49.46% | 87.94% | 88.75¢ | 65.7% | 12.2% |
| Wednesday | 3,168 | 49.27% | 88.39% | 88.74¢ | 65.2% | 10.8% |
| Thursday | 2,843 | 48.82% | 87.52% | 88.69¢ | 65.3% | 10.3% |
| Friday | 3,168 | 49.91% | 88.23% | 87.87¢ | 62.8% | 13.5% |
| Saturday | 3,168 | 51.93% | 86.80% | 87.33¢ | 61.7% | 24.7% |
| Sunday | 3,172 | 48.99% | 88.42% | 89.00¢ | 66.7% | 18.2% |
| Weekday (Mon to Fri) | 15,419 | 49.34% | 88.06% | 88.59¢ | 65.0% | 11.6% |
| Weekend (Sat and Sun) | 6,340 | 50.46% | 87.61% | 88.17¢ | 64.2% | 21.4% |
No day leaned Up or Down by more than normal luck. The largest gap from 50% was Saturday, at 51.93% Up, 2.17 standard errors from even. With nine groups tested, a result needs about 2.77 standard errors before it means anything.
Weekends against weekdays: 50.46% Up against 49.34%, a gap of 1.50 standard errors. Kalshi's windows across the whole period settled Up 49.67% of the time. Over a whole window it is a coin flip on any day; see will Bitcoin go up or down in the next 15 minutes?
About the same on both. With 3 minutes left, 64.2% of weekend favorites cost 90 cents or more, against 65.0% on weekdays, and 14.2% still cost under 70 cents, against 14.1%. Both gaps are inside normal luck (1.10 and 0.21 standard errors). By day, Saturday had the fewest 90-cent-plus favorites (61.7%) and Sunday the most (66.7%).
That is a little surprising, because weekend windows move less. The median weekend window moved 0.055% from strike to settlement, against 0.099% on weekdays. With 3 minutes left the weekend price looked about as sure as a weekday one, but more weekend windows then finished right on the line, where the final 60-second average decides the result. Settlement is a 60-second index average, not the exchange chart you may be watching; see how settlement works.
No. With 3 minutes left the weekend favorite won 87.61% at an average 88.17 cents; the weekday favorite won 88.06% at 88.59 cents.
Won minus price, before any fee, was -0.55 points on weekends and -0.53 on weekdays. The difference between them is 0.05 standard errors, inside normal luck, and no single day beat or missed its price by more than the 2.77 bar. Kalshi's fee then takes at least 1 cent per contract on a one-contract order. Fees and breakeven at every price are in the fee study.
Our time-of-day study covers volume and move size by hour and weekday, and our settlement study compares weekend and weekday near-flat finishes and our own feed. Those use different date ranges, so their figures differ a little from this page. This page adds direction, the market favorite and its price, day by day.
Our paid feed sends its call about two minutes and fifty seconds before most windows close, inside the same late-window market this page measures. Every call is graded in public: 91.0% won across 13,784 graded alerts at a 91.5 cent average price. At that price you have to win that often just to break even, so the record sits below breakeven before Kalshi's fee and further below after it. Nothing on this page shows our alerts doing better than Kalshi's own price.
Not in our data. Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin windows settled Up 50.46% of the time on weekends and 49.34% on weekdays (March 24 to November 8, 2026), both within normal luck of 50%. No single day leaned either way by more than chance.
No. With 3 minutes left the favorite won 87.61% on weekends at an average 88.17 cents and 88.06% on weekdays at 88.59 cents. On both it won about what it cost, and the fee comes on top.
Bitcoin moved less on weekends in this period. The median weekend window moved 0.055% from strike to settlement against 0.099% on weekdays, so 21.4% of weekend windows ended within 0.02% of the strike against 11.6% on weekdays.
Saturday. 24.7% of Saturday windows ended within 0.02% of the strike, the highest of any day, and its median move was 0.045%.
Yes. Kalshi lists trading as 24/7 apart from scheduled maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM ET, so there are 96 windows on most days, weekends included.
We used Kalshi's official strike, settlement value and result for every KXBTC15M window that closed from March 24 to November 8, 2026 (21,759 windows), and its public one-minute price history for the favorite and its price, pulled from Kalshi's public API on November 9, 2026. Days are US Eastern, by the window's close. The favorite is the side whose midpoint was above 50 cents at the end of the minute that left 3:00 on the clock; 21,741 windows had a usable quote then. Move and near-flat figures use the 21,729 windows with an official strike and settlement value (a few published strikes were missing or mis-scaled and are left out of those two columns only). Bars for "more than normal luck" correct for testing nine groups (seven days, weekend, weekday) at once.
This page publishes totals only. No exchange price is published. DegenHedge is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Related: best time of day? · how settlement works · exactly at the strike · when Bitcoin moves big · flips in the last 3 minutes
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Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. The same record is available as JSON from our read-only API.
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These are 15-minute binary prediction-market contracts. Any single window can lose 100% of your stake. They settle on a 60-second index average, not on the exchange chart you may be watching. At high prices a loss costs many times what a win pays, and Kalshi's fee raises the win rate you need above the price. Nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
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