The favorite almost always holds, but you only learn it was a big move after the close. In 21,711 Kalshi Bitcoin 15-minute windows from March 24 to November 8, 2026, when Bitcoin finished 0.20% or more from the strike (about $150 at a $75,000 price), the side favored with 3 minutes left lost just 0.93% of the time. Reversals live in the quiet windows: windows that ended within 0.05% of the strike were 33.4% of all windows but 76.8% of all favorite losses.
A wild previous hour did not make the next window's price any less accurate. After the wildest fifth of hours, the next window moved 0.20% or more 38.0% of the time (after the calmest fifth, 5.8%), and the favorite lost less often, but it also cost more. In every group it won about what it cost.
All figures are frozen on Kalshi KXBTC15M windows that closed from March 24 to November 8, 2026 (US Eastern time).
Sorted by how far Bitcoin ended from the strike, the late favorite's loss rate fell from 39.46% in the flattest windows to 0.19% in the biggest.
| Window's move, strike to settlement | Share of windows | Favorite lost, 3 min left | Share of all favorite losses | Favorite priced 90¢+ at 3 min left |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| under 0.02% | 14.5% | 39.46% | 47.3% | 21.3% |
| 0.02% to 0.05% | 19.0% | 18.80% | 29.5% | 40.6% |
| 0.05% to 0.10% | 23.2% | 8.22% | 15.8% | 65.6% |
| 0.10% to 0.20% | 24.5% | 2.94% | 6.0% | 84.6% |
| 0.20% to 0.40% | 14.0% | 1.19% | 1.4% | 94.5% |
| 0.40% or more | 4.9% | 0.19% | 0.1% | 98.9% |
Half the story is in the first row. Windows that finished within 0.02% of the strike were 14.5% of all windows and held 47.3% of every late-favorite loss. Those are the near-flat finishes our strike study looks at, decided by a 60-second index average.
The table above sorts windows by a number nobody has until the window is over.
With 3 minutes left you cannot know whether this window will finish 0.30% away or 0.01% away. Sorting by the final move after the fact always makes favorites look safer in big-move windows and shakier in flat ones. That is hindsight, not a pattern you can bet on. The fair question is what you can see before the window ends, which is the next finding.
Here windows are split by how much Bitcoin moved in the hour before them, something you do know in advance. The price adjusts to it.
| Previous hour (average move per window) | Windows | This window moved 0.20%+ | Ended within 0.02% | Favorite lost, 3 min left | Favorite's average price | Won minus price (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Calmest fifth (0.002 to 0.056%) | 4,302 | 5.8% | 26.1% | 13.37% | 87.17¢ | -0.53 (-1.14 SE) |
| Calm (0.056 to 0.086%) | 4,303 | 11.6% | 16.0% | 11.67% | 88.82¢ | -0.49 (-1.10 SE) |
| Middle (0.086 to 0.122%) | 4,303 | 16.0% | 13.3% | 12.18% | 88.52¢ | -0.70 (-1.56 SE) |
| Busy (0.122 to 0.179%) | 4,303 | 23.3% | 9.9% | 11.90% | 88.79¢ | -0.69 (-1.57 SE) |
| Wildest fifth (0.180 to 1.767%) | 4,303 | 38.0% | 7.3% | 11.22% | 89.01¢ | -0.24 (-0.54 SE) |
After a wild hour, big moves were more common (38.0% against 5.8% after a calm one) and near-flat finishes rarer (7.3% against 26.1%). So the late favorite lost less often after a wild hour, 11.22% against 13.37%. But it also cost more, 89.01 cents against 87.17. In every group the favorite won within normal luck of its price. Calm hours give you cheaper favorites that lose more; wild hours give you pricier favorites that lose less.
Our settlement study splits hours into thirds the same way but looks only at our own feed's alerts, not every window. Its levels differ because the feed fires on some windows and not others, but it found the part that matters here: win rate and price moved together, and no group beat its price by more than chance.
Our paid feed sends its call about two minutes and fifty seconds before most windows close, inside the same late-window market this page measures. Every call is graded in public: 91.0% won across 13,784 graded alerts at a 91.5 cent average price. At that price you have to win that often just to break even, so the record sits below breakeven before Kalshi's fee and further below after it. Nothing on this page shows our alerts doing better than Kalshi's own price.
The late favorite almost always holds. In 21,711 windows from March 24 to November 8, 2026, when Bitcoin finished 0.20% or more from the strike, the side favored with 3 minutes left lost 0.93% of the time. You only know the final move after the close, though.
Mostly in quiet windows. Windows that ended within 0.05% of the strike were 33.4% of all windows but 76.8% of late-favorite losses. Within 0.02% the favorite lost 39.46% of the time.
Not in a way the price misses. After the wildest hours the late favorite lost 11.22% of the time but cost 89.01 cents on average; after the calmest it lost 13.37% and cost 87.17 cents. In every group it won about what it cost, before Kalshi's fee. This is not betting advice.
On this page, 0.20% or more from the strike, about $150 at a $75,000 Bitcoin price. Moves are measured from Kalshi's official strike to its official settlement value, both 60-second index averages.
Our alerts face the same market: late favorites in quiet windows lose more often, and the price already reflects that. Every alert is graded in public, and the record sits below breakeven at its logged prices before Kalshi's fee.
We used Kalshi's official strike, settlement value and result for every KXBTC15M window that closed from March 24 to November 8, 2026, and its public one-minute price history, pulled from Kalshi's public API on November 9, 2026. 21,711 windows had an official strike and settlement value and a usable quote at the end of the minute that left 3:00 on the clock. The favorite is the side whose midpoint was above 50 cents then; its price is Kalshi's asking price for it. A window's move is the distance from its official strike to its official settlement value, as a percent of the strike. "Previous hour" is the average move of the four windows just before, used only when all four have official values.
We did not use any exchange price for these figures. Our logger's recorded opening price is not Kalshi's official strike on most windows, so it is not used. This page publishes totals only. DegenHedge is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Related: how settlement works · exactly at the strike · flips in the last 3 minutes · weekends vs weekdays · best time of day?
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Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. The same record is available as JSON from our read-only API.
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