Yes. Kalshi keeps each NFL game open while it is being played, with one contract per team. If your team wins (overtime counts) you get $1 per contract, if it loses you get nothing, and if the game ends in a tie each side gets 50 cents. The price moves with every score, and it is basically the crowd's guess at the odds: 70 cents means about a 70% chance.
From the rules Kalshi publishes on each NFL market, checked October 22, 2026. Rules can change; the full terms are linked from every market.
If you buy a team at 62 cents, you win 38 cents when they win and lose your 62 cents when they lose. To come out even over time, that bet has to win about 62 times out of 100. That is your breakeven, and it is the same number as the price. Add Kalshi's fee and you need a little more.
For example, a 30-cent contract that wins one time in three pays about 33.3 cents on average: about 3.3 cents more than it costs, before fees. Fees and the price you actually get reduce that margin. The hard part is knowing the true chance of winning; a model estimate or a small past sample does not establish it. The question is always "did it win more often than the price said it would?"
During a game the price jumps: a touchdown, an interception or a fourth-down stop can swing a team's chances sharply in one play, and the price follows as people trade. Two games with the same score can carry very different prices depending on who has the ball and how much time is left.
Watching one game on TV is easy; watching all of them is not. Our NFL feed watches every game at once and sends a Telegram alert when our model's read of a game and the live Kalshi price disagree by a set amount. Each alert has the team, the live price, the score and clock, and a link to the market. You decide what, if anything, to do with it.
What it is not: proof that Kalshi's price is slow. We tested that idea and our own measurements did not back it up, so we don't claim it. Our model's estimate has also tended to run optimistic. Think of an alert as a heads-up to look at a game, not a tip.
Every alert goes into the public results log, wins and losses, and NFL alerts post in full to the free @DegenHedgeProof Telegram channel 12 minutes after they fire, so you can watch the record before you pay anything.
Neither number shows a way to beat the price. What we sell is coverage of every game and speed, with every call graded in public.
The full checklist: how to check a signal service.
Yes. Kalshi keeps each NFL game open while it is being played, with one contract per team. A contract pays $1 if that team wins, overtime included, and the price moves with the score and the clock.
Each side gets 50 cents per contract. Kalshi's rules say a tied game resolves to $0.50 for each team, and the October 11, 2026 Giants at Commanders game settled that way.
Yes. Kalshi goes by the official final from the NFL, so overtime counts. Only a game that is still tied after overtime pays 50 cents per side.
It is the crowd's guess at the odds and also your breakeven. A contract pays $1 if right, so a 62-cent contract has to win about 62 times out of 100 just to break even, a little more once Kalshi's fee is added.
We have not shown one. Our replay of the 2025-26 season with the bot's current settings won 60.9% of 225 graded signals at a 62.5 cent average entry, 1.6 points below breakeven before fees, and our live record is still small. This is not betting advice; any single bet can lose your whole stake.
Every NFL alert posts in full to the free @DegenHedgeProof Telegram channel 12 minutes after it fires, and every graded result, wins and losses, is in the public results log on degenhedge.com.
Related: NFL alerts · MLB in-game · NBA in-game · risk
Watch the record first: every NFL alert posts free to @DegenHedgeProof 12 minutes after it fires. The paid feed is optional.
Every alert in our NFL in-game feed goes into the public results log and the downloadable CSV, graded at settlement against the official result, losses included, with nothing pulled.
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These are binary prediction-market contracts on live games. Any single alert can lose 100% of your stake. One play can swing a game, a model that reads the market well most of the time will still be wrong, sometimes several times in a row, and Kalshi's fees raise the win rate you need above the price. Nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade only with money you can afford to lose. Must be 18+ or of legal age where you live. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.