We watch every MLB game on the board at once, so this dataset exists: everything our graded in-game signals show about how Kalshi's MLB markets behave while the game is live. Win rates by inning, by entry price, by model-versus-market difference, and the losses that come with all of it. Read the whole thing before you pay us anything.
This is not a picks page. You will not find today's games or plays here — only the measurements.
Kalshi lists every MLB game as a KXMLBGAME event contract: a yes/no contract on the named team winning, settling at $1 if they do and $0 if they don't. While the game is live, the price trades like a market-implied win probability — a team quoted at 80¢ is being priced at roughly an 80% chance to win.
A model's read of the game and the market's price are two different numbers, produced by two different processes. The model recomputes the instant a run scores; the price only changes when someone actually crosses the spread with an order. We used to argue that this made the price a slow copy of the model, and that it would catch up. We tested that and retired it: instrumented around our own alerts, the alerted side does not measurably move. What is left is the disagreement itself, logged in advance and graded at settlement. This page is what a season of that looks like.
The measurement loop is simple. An empirical live win probability model — run differential, inning, half, and outs — reads scores every 30 seconds. Kalshi KXMLBGAME prices refresh roughly every 60 seconds alongside. When the model's probability is at least 85% and exceeds the Kalshi price of that team by at least 10 percentage points — the V2.2 filters, running since April 26, 2026 — a signal fires and both numbers are logged. At settlement, the signal grades win or loss. Across the graded set, the gap at fire runs a median of 12.5 points, a mean of 13.5, a maximum of 25 — against a median entry price of 80¢. Full model construction is on the method page.
Not most of them. All of them. The model has never once called a comeback — it is a lead-underpricing detector, not a comeback picker.
That's not a modesty setting; it's what the filters mechanically produce. A trailing team almost never models at 85%+ win probability, so the model has nothing to say about longshots. What clears the filter, over and over, is a team that is already winning while Kalshi is still quoting it below what the game state implies.
If you trade Kalshi MLB in-game — with our alerts or without them — this finding is the map. Leads are where model and market disagree most consistently. When a team goes up by three in the sixth, our model's number jumps at once while the price, anchored near its pre-game level and maintained by a thin in-game crowd, credits the lead in increments. That is where our signals fire. It is worth being blunt about what that is and is not: it is a disagreement we detect and publish quickly, not a demonstration that the model is right. On these game states the market's implied loss rate has tracked reality better than ours has, so read a lead-based signal as a fast, checkable observation, not as a verdict.
Three cuts of the same first-signal dataset, each with its honest reading spelled out underneath. Loss rates sit next to win rates on purpose.
| Inning group | Games (n) | Win rate | Loss rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Innings 1–3 | 40 | 80.0% | 20.0% |
| Innings 4–6 | 154 | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| Innings 7–9 | 220 | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| Extra innings | 15 | 73.3% | 26.7% |
The honest reading: extras are the weakest bucket. More than 1 in 4 extra-inning signals lost — small leads in extra innings are fragile, one swing ends the game, and n=15 is too thin to lean on anyway. Middle innings grade best; the late innings, where most signals fire, sit near the overall average. Nothing in this table says "later is safer." Both walkthroughs below came from the extras bucket.
| Entry price | Games (n) | Win rate | Loss rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| ≤ 70¢ | 31 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| 70–80¢ | 195 | 77.4% | 22.6% |
| 80–90¢ | 203 | 87.7% | 12.3% |
The honest reading — the most important sentences on this page: the win rate largely tracks the price paid. Contracts entered at 80–90¢ won 87.7% of the time, which is close to what an 80–90¢ price already implies on its own — price is probability. That is exactly why hit rate is not profit. A high win percentage bought at high prices is not an achievement; the question that matters is whether the model's probability exceeded the price at entry, not how often the pick won. The June 14 HOU@KC loss lives in the cheapest bucket — model 89% on KC at 66¢, Houston came back 8–7. Cheaper entries lose more often, exactly as their prices say they should.
| Gap at fire | Games (n) | Win rate | Loss rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10–15 pp | 320 | 83.8% | 16.2% |
| 15–20 pp | 82 | 73.2% | 26.8% |
| ≥ 20 pp | 27 | 81.5% | 18.5% |
The honest reading: a wider gap is not a safer signal. The 15–20 point bucket — where the market disagrees with the model most — grades worst, with more than 1 in 4 losing. That is the wrong way round for any story in which the model is right and the market is behind. The simpler reading is that when the book sits that far from the model, it is usually seeing something the model cannot — bullpen state, an injury, a lineup wrinkle — or the model is simply wrong. The market is not blind.
Bottom of the 10th on the South Side. The model read Detroit at 100% — the strongest output it can produce — with Kalshi quoting DET at 79¢, a 21-point gap. The White Sox then walked it off, 4–3. The signal graded a loss and went into the public log like every other loss.
This is the cleanest illustration of settlement risk we have: even a 100% model read lost. A "100%" read means the historical game states that looked like this one were essentially always converted — not that this one must be. The model computes from run differential, innings, and outs; it does not see a tiring reliever, who's due up, or a hanging slider. Nothing is decided until the contract settles.
The win — May 10, MIN @ CLE. Eleventh inning of a one-run game in Cleveland. The model read Minnesota at 100%; Kalshi was still quoting MIN at 75¢ — a 25-point gap, the widest at fire in the graded set. Minnesota closed out the 2–1 win and the contract settled at $1. Read it as a measurement, not a prophecy: the signal predicted nothing, and it is not evidence the price moved toward the model afterward. On instrumented signals it does not.
Notice what these two games have in common: the same kind of read, in the same kind of spot, produced opposite outcomes. The model wasn't "right" once and "wrong" once — it reported the same kind of disagreement both times, and baseball did the rest. That is what a 78.9% first-signal win rate at a median entry of 80¢ looks like from the inside: about 1 in 5 of these games ends like Chicago, not like Cleveland. Both games are broken down further in the May 2026 case study, and every graded signal — wins and losses — is in the sortable public log.
Team, live Kalshi price at fire, model probability, the gap in points, and the game state — score, inning, outs. The field-by-field anatomy is on the Kalshi signals page.
Alerts arrive the moment the signal fires — not delayed, not in a digest. Filter to your teams with a single command if 30 teams is too much noise.
Every signal lands in the public results log and the raw results.csv, win or lose, whether you subscribe or not.
You can audit us before paying a dollar. The free proof channel at t.me/DegenHedgeProof posts every signal locked about 10 minutes after it fires — side hidden so it can't tip anyone's hand, revealed at settlement, losses included. It has run continuously since June 13, 2026. The full product rundown, including the BTC 15-minute product, which works differently (a timed read about two minutes before each window closes), is on the Kalshi alerts page.
The flagship product. Same signals this page is built from, delivered to your Telegram at fire, every one graded publicly — wins and losses. Free for 30 days, then $4.99/mo. MLB alerts run through the World Series in late October. The feed is quiet over the winter. After the final World Series game we pause billing on MLB subscriptions bought on degenhedge.com, so nothing is charged over the winter. Billing resumes shortly before Opening Day, and we email you at least 7 days before the first charge. You can cancel any time from your account page.
/manage in the bot, or email [email protected]. Cancelling later stops future renewals at the end of the current paid month and does not refund it. MLB only: MLB alerts run through the World Series in late October. The feed is quiet over the winter. After the final World Series game we pause billing on MLB subscriptions bought on degenhedge.com, so nothing is charged over the winter. Billing resumes shortly before Opening Day, and we email you at least 7 days before the first charge. Cancel any time from your account page. No refunds except as required by law. By starting a trial you authorize these recurring charges and agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Signals are informational and for entertainment only, are not financial or betting advice, and any single signal can lose 100% of your stake. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Every signal can lose. 200 of the 949 graded first-signal games lost — about 1 in 5 — and losses cluster rather than arriving politely spaced: the longest first-signal losing streak in the dataset so far is 3 straight. At the median 80¢ entry, a single loss costs roughly what four winning contracts return, so a short cluster can erase a long stretch of wins. If a run of consecutive losses at your stake size would wreck you, the stake is too big.
The numbers on this page are measurements of one filter, over one stretch of one season, under V2.2 rules in place since April 26, 2026. Past performance never guarantees future results. This page is education about how these markets behave for informational and entertainment purposes — it is not betting advice, and whether you act on any of it, at what size, or not at all, is entirely yours. 18+ only (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.