Our September 2026 report said the Kalshi price on the side our model favored was below how often that side won. It was the other way round: that side won 81.15% of the time and cost an average of 82.90 cents, so it won 1.75 points less often than its price. Buying it at the asking price lost money before fees. Every other figure in that report was right.
The summary paragraph at the top of the September 2026 report read: "The Kalshi ask about three minutes before the close, on the side our model favored, sat 1.75 points below how often that side won."
The numbers behind it, from that report's own spreadsheet: on 2,567 windows, the side our model favored about three minutes before the close won 2,083 times, 81.15%, at an average asking price of 82.90 cents. On Kalshi a contract pays $1, so the price is the win rate you need just to break even. 81.15% is below 82.90%, by 1.75 points. The sentence had the two sides of the comparison swapped.
The same report's "Pricing" section, its chart and its spreadsheet all had the direction right. Only the one summary sentence was wrong.
The wrong version made the favored side sound like a bargain, which flatters anyone following that side, including our own alerts. The right version says the opposite: in September, paying the ask for that side was slightly worse than the odds it won at, before Kalshi's fee and more so after it. The gap was 2.27 standard errors, inside the 2.69 bar we use when looking at 7 months, so it is within normal luck rather than proof of anything.
Our own feed's September record was stated correctly in that report: 89.98% at a 91.12-cent average entry, 1.14 points below breakeven before fees. Today the live record is 91.1% won across 13,341 graded alerts at a 91.6 cent average price, which is still below breakeven. Why a high win rate is not profit is explained in does a high win rate make money on Kalshi?
Spotted something else that looks wrong? Email [email protected]. Every figure in our reports has a spreadsheet row so anyone can check it.
One summary sentence had the direction reversed. It said the Kalshi ask on the side our model favored sat 1.75 points below how often that side won. In fact that side won 81.15% at an average ask of 82.90 cents, 1.75 points below its price. The rest of the report was right.
No. It won less often than its average asking price, so buying it at the ask lost money before Kalshi's fee and more after it. The gap was within normal luck. This is not betting advice.
No. Published reports are left as they were, and the correction is published separately and in the October 2026 report.
Every figure above is a row in the September report's spreadsheet, state-of-kalshi-btc-2026-09.csv (rows cal_n, cal_won, cal_ask, cal_gap, cal_z and cal_zbar), built from Kalshi's public market data and our logged asks. A logged ask is the price at that moment, not a promised fill, and what happened in September does not promise what happens next. DegenHedge is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Related: all monthly reports · how well Kalshi's price matches outcomes, minute by minute
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Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. The same record is available as JSON from our read-only API.
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