No, not on its own. On Kalshi the price you pay is the win rate you need: a 92-cent contract has to win 92 times out of 100 just to get your money back, and a bit more once Kalshi's fee is added. So a 91% win rate on 92-cent bets loses money. Our own Bitcoin alerts are a real example: they win more than 9 times out of 10 (91.1% live, at a 91.6 cent average price), and that still sits below breakeven.
Every Kalshi contract pays $1 if you are right and nothing if you are wrong. If you pay 92 cents, a win makes you 8 cents and a loss costs you 92 cents. One loss wipes out about 11.5 wins. That is why a high win rate is normal at high prices, and why it says nothing about profit until you put it next to the price.
The share of bets you need to win to break even, before any fee, is simply the price: 92 cents needs 92%. Kalshi also charges a small fee when you buy at the listed price, at least 1 cent on a single contract, which pushes the bar higher.
| You pay | A win makes | A loss costs | Wins to cover one loss | Win rate to break even | Fee, one contract | Break even after the fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 cents | 50 cents | 50 cents | 1.0 | 50% | 2 cents | 52% |
| 70 cents | 30 cents | 70 cents | 2.3 | 70% | 2 cents | 72% |
| 80 cents | 20 cents | 80 cents | 4.0 | 80% | 2 cents | 82% |
| 90 cents | 10 cents | 90 cents | 9.0 | 90% | 1 cent | 91% |
| 92 cents | 8 cents | 92 cents | 11.5 | 92% | 1 cent | 93% |
| 95 cents | 5 cents | 95 cents | 19.0 | 95% | 1 cent | 96% |
| 98 cents | 2 cents | 98 cents | 49.0 | 98% | 1 cent | 99% |
| 99 cents | 1 cent | 99 cents | 99.0 | 99% | 1 cent | 100% |
Our paid feed sends an alert about two minutes before most of Kalshi's 15-minute Bitcoin windows close, and every alert is graded in public. Right now the record is 91.1% won across 13,339 graded alerts, at a 91.6 cent average price. Read those two numbers together: at that price you have to win that often just to break even.
In the dated snapshot through October 30, 2026, 11,911 of 13,082 alerts won and 1,171 lost: 91.05% at a 91.60 cent average price, which is 0.55 points below breakeven before fees. After a single-contract fee on every alert, that works out to about 1.70 cents lost per contract per alert. One alert in about 11.2 lost, and each loss cost close to the whole stake.
| Price paid | Alerts | Won | Average price | Ahead or behind, before the fee (points) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79 cents or less | 1,600 | 65.94% | 68.82 cents | -2.88 |
| 80 to 85 cents | 889 | 82.90% | 82.59 cents | +0.31 |
| 86 to 89 cents | 852 | 86.27% | 87.60 cents | -1.33 |
| 90 to 92 cents | 1,211 | 88.85% | 90.99 cents | -2.14 |
| 93 to 94 cents | 1,040 | 95.00% | 93.58 cents | +1.42 |
| 95 cents | 588 | 93.20% | 95.00 cents | -1.80 |
| 96 cents | 886 | 96.39% | 96.00 cents | +0.39 |
| 97 cents | 1,009 | 97.52% | 97.00 cents | +0.52 |
| 98 cents | 1,855 | 97.68% | 98.00 cents | -0.32 |
| 99 cents | 3,152 | 99.05% | 99.00 cents | +0.05 |
5 of the 10 price bands came out a little ahead before the fee and the rest behind, and none of them beat or missed its own price by more than normal luck explains (we use a bar of 2.81 standard errors because ten bands are tested at once). After a single-contract fee, 1 came out ahead (93 to 94 cents), by less than normal luck explains. The biggest band is 99 cents (3,152 alerts, about 24% of them): it won 99.05%, and a 99-cent contract only makes 1 cent when it wins, so the 1-cent fee is more than the whole profit.
So what are you paying for? Coverage and speed: a call on most windows, around the clock, with every result in public. Not a price advantage.
The longer version is our checklist for any signal service.
Not by itself. A Kalshi contract pays $1, so the price you pay is the win rate you need to break even, before the fee: a 92-cent contract has to win 92 times out of 100. A 91% win rate on 92-cent contracts loses money.
Any win rate higher than the average price you paid, plus Kalshi's fee. 60% is good on 50-cent contracts and losing on 70-cent ones. Always read a win rate together with its average price.
No. In the dated snapshot through October 30, 2026, our Bitcoin alerts won 91.05% of 13,082 at a 91.60-cent average price, 0.55 points below breakeven before Kalshi's fee and further below after it. The live figures are on our results log. We sell the feed as coverage and speed, not as a price advantage.
Divide the price by what a win pays. At 92 cents a win pays 8 cents and a loss costs 92, so one loss erases about 11.5 wins. At 99 cents one loss erases 99 wins.
Ask for the average price paid, every loss, and a timestamp on every call made before the result. A win rate without the price, or a record with losses missing, tells you nothing about profit.
The dated snapshot is every alert in our published Bitcoin 15-minute record from March 24 to October 30, 2026 (UTC), graded on Kalshi's official result, with the same exclusions as the live results log. Every row is in record-2026-10-30.csv and the definitions are in its summary file. The live figures above update from the results log as alerts are graded. A logged price is the price when the alert fired, not a promised fill, and what happened in 2026 does not promise what happens next. DegenHedge is independent and is not affiliated with or endorsed by Kalshi.
Related: fees and breakeven study · can a 99-cent bet lose? · will Bitcoin go up or down in the next 15 minutes? · how to verify a signal service
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Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. The same record is available as JSON from our read-only API.
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These are 15-minute binary prediction-market contracts. Any single window can lose 100% of your stake. They settle on a 60-second index average, not on the exchange chart you may be watching. At high prices a loss costs many times what a win pays, and Kalshi's fee raises the win rate you need above the price. Nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
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