Kalshi's Bitcoin 15-minute markets (KXBTC15M) settled 2,848 windows in September 2026 and traded 6.75 billion contracts, up 22.6% on August 2026. Up won 50.18%. The typical window ended $64.63 from its strike, wider than August 2026's $46.50, and 127 windows finished within $5 of it. The Kalshi ask about three minutes before the close, on the side our model favored, sat 1.75 points below how often that side won. Our own feed won 89.98% at a 91.12¢ average entry, 1.14 points below breakeven before fees.
6.75 billion contracts changed hands across 2,848 windows, 26 times the volume of February 2026.
The median window traded 2.35 million contracts. The busiest hour was 9 PM ET, with 5.2% of the month's contracts, and the busiest day was September 28, 2026 with 284 million. Kalshi pauses the series for maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM ET, which is why the month has fewer than the 2,880 windows a full 30-day month of 15-minute windows would hold. For how activity varies through the day across the whole year, see our time-of-day study.
Up won 50.18% of September 2026's windows (95% range 48.34 to 52.01), against 50.02% in August 2026. The longest run of identical results was 11 in a row (Up). Runs like that are what a fair coin produces over a few thousand flips; our integrity study found results lean slightly against streaks across the whole year, by less than the fee on a 50¢ contract.
The median window settled $64.63 (0.081%) away from its strike, against $46.50 in August 2026. Bitcoin's official strikes ranged from $75,332 to $87,285 during the month.
| Settled within | September 2026 | Share | August 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1 of the strike | 17 | 0.60% | 51 |
| $5 of the strike | 127 | 4.46% | 234 |
| 0.02% of the strike | 426 | 15.0% | 578 |
Close finishes are where these contracts are least predictable. Across the full year, the side Bitcoin was on about three minutes before the close lost 44.2% of the windows that went on to settle within $5 of the strike (strike study).
On 2,567 windows we logged a 1 to 99¢ ask about three minutes before the close for the side our model favored at that moment. That side won 81.15% of them at an average ask of 82.90¢: the win rate came in 1.75 points below the price. That gap is 2.27 standard errors. With 7 months to look at, the bar for calling one month's gap more than chance is 2.69 standard errors, so September 2026's gap is within what chance produces now and then.
Our feed sent 2,035 graded signals for windows that closed in September 2026. They won 89.98% (95% range 88.6 to 91.2) at a 91.12¢ average entry, 1.14 points below breakeven before fees. That gap is 1.72 standard errors, within what chance explains on its own.
| Per contract, one contract per signal | September 2026 |
|---|---|
| Result before fees | -1.14¢ |
| Result after Kalshi's taker fee (one-contract orders) | -2.31¢ |
We print this every month because a win rate means nothing without its price. The feed is not a source of returns, and this month is no exception. The full log, one row per signal, is on the results page.
Every figure above is a row in the CSV, with its numerator, denominator and definition.
Windows are assigned to September 2026 by their close time in US Eastern time. Kalshi lists one KXBTC15M window every 15 minutes, around the clock, apart from the Thursday maintenance pause.
Strikes, settlement values, results and contracts traded come from Kalshi's public market API, pulled October 5, 2026. Asks about three minutes out come from our own logger, which reads Kalshi's live order book. Both input files are the ones published in our open dataset, version v2026.10, byte for byte (SHA-256 checked).
The published BTC 15-minute record: alerted signals priced 1 to 99¢ at the live ask, graded on Kalshi's official result, the same population as our results log.
| Figure | Value | CSV metric |
|---|---|---|
| KXBTC15M windows whose close time falls in September 2026, US Eastern | 2,848 | windows |
| of those, windows with Kalshi's official strike and settlement value | 2,847 | windows_official |
| windows Kalshi settled Yes (Up) | 50.18% | up_pct |
| Wilson 95% interval on up_pct | 48.34 to 52.01 | up_ci |
| same, August 2026 | 50.02% | up_pct_prev |
| sum of Kalshi volume_fp (contracts traded; each contract pays at most $1) | 6.75 billion | contracts |
| same, August 2026 | 5.51 billion | contracts_prev |
| change in contracts traded versus the month before | up 22.6% | contracts_mom |
| contracts traded versus February 2026 | 26 times | contracts_vs_first |
| median contracts traded per window | 2.35 million | contracts_med |
| ET hour (by window close) with the most contracts traded | 9 PM ET | busiest_hour |
| that hour's share of the month's contracts | 5.2% | busiest_hour_share |
| ET calendar day with the most contracts traded | September 28, 2026 | busiest_day |
| contracts traded that day | 284 million | busiest_day_contracts |
| median |official settlement value minus official strike| | $64.63 | move_med |
| the same, as a percent of the strike | 0.081% | move_med_pct |
| same, August 2026 | $46.50 | move_med_prev |
| windows that settled within $5 of the strike | 127 | within5 |
| share settling within $5 | 4.46% | within5_pct |
| same, August 2026 | 234 | within5_prev |
| windows that settled within $1 of the strike | 17 | within1 |
| windows that settled within 0.02% of the strike | 426 | flat02 |
| share within 0.02% | 15.0% | flat02_pct |
| lowest official strike of the month | $75,332 | strike_low |
| highest official strike of the month | $87,285 | strike_high |
| longest run of identical results (Up) | 11 | streak |
| direction of that run | Up | streak_side |
| windows with a logged 1-99c ask about 3 minutes before close for the side our model favore | 2,567 | cal_n |
| share of those windows that side won (Kalshi official result) | 81.15% | cal_won |
| average logged ask for that side, cents | 82.90¢ | cal_ask |
| won rate minus average ask | 1.75 points below | cal_gap |
| gap in standard errors | 2.27 | cal_z |
| months tested (from the first month with at least 300 logged windows) | 7 | cal_K |
| two-sided 5% bar after a Bonferroni correction for 7 months | 2.69 | cal_zbar |
| graded signals in our published BTC 15-minute record, by window close | 2,035 | rec_n |
| share won | 89.98% | rec_wr |
| Wilson 95% interval on rec_wr | 88.6 to 91.2 | rec_ci |
| average entry (the ask when the signal fired), cents | 91.12¢ | rec_avg |
| win rate minus average entry (breakeven before fees) | 1.14 points below | rec_gap |
| that gap in standard errors | 1.72 | rec_z |
| average result per contract before fees, cents ($1 on a win minus the entry) | -1.14¢ | rec_pnl |
| the same after Kalshi's taker fee on one-contract orders | -2.31¢ | rec_pnl_fee |
| signals graded from our own price feed because Kalshi's result was not yet available | 17 | rec_fallback |
Citations welcome. Dataset name for attribution: DegenHedge Kalshi Signal Dataset. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled.
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