Kalshi, a CFTC-regulated US exchange, lists a new Bitcoin market every 15 minutes in its KXBTC15M series. Each one asks whether Bitcoin finishes the window at or above where it started. The starting level, called the strike, is the average of the CF Benchmarks Bitcoin Real Time Index (BRTI) over the 60 seconds before the window opens; the finish is the same 60-second average before it closes. A Yes (Up) contract pays $1 if the finish is at least the strike, a tie included, and a No (Down) contract pays $1 otherwise. You buy either side for between 1¢ and 99¢, and Kalshi charges a taker fee that is rounded up to the cent on each order.
Every KXBTC15M market is binary. If you hold the winning side when the window settles, each contract pays $1.00; the losing side pays nothing. The price of a side, in cents, is roughly the market's estimate of its chance: a Yes at 70¢ costs 70¢ to win $1.00. Between 10¢ and 90¢ the market quotes in whole cents; below 10¢ and above 90¢ Kalshi lists 0.1¢ steps, so "99¢" can mean anything from 99.0¢ to 99.9¢.
Windows run around the clock, with no gap between them, apart from Kalshi's scheduled maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM ET. Each window has its own ticker, for example KXBTC15M-26OCT090815-15, whose middle part encodes the date and the closing time in US Eastern time.
The strike is the simple average of 60 BRTI prints, one per second, in the minute before the window opens, rounded to the cent. Kalshi shows it as "TBD" for a short time after the window opens, until the value is published. Because the same 60 seconds also settle the previous window, each strike normally equals the previous window's settlement value: it did in 25,281 of 25,285 consecutive pairs from January 10 to October 8, 2026 (integrity study).
At the close Kalshi averages the 60 BRTI prints in the final minute and rounds to the cent. If that average is at least the strike, Yes wins; an exact tie also goes to Yes. In 25,317 windows we checked, no window tied exactly, but about 1 in 117 finished within $1 of the strike and 1 in 22 within $5 (strike study). Results usually post quickly: a median of 10.9 seconds after the close, and within a minute on 75.2% of windows.
The BRTI is built from the order books of several constituent exchanges (CF Benchmarks' list as of August 2026 names Bitstamp, Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini, LMAX Digital, Bullish Exchange and Crypto.com), not from any single exchange. That is why a chart from one exchange can show the wrong result: a Coinbase/Kraken spot read at the close disagreed with Kalshi's official result on 4.37% of 18,377 windows we logged, and on 39.2% of windows that finished within $5 of the strike (settlement study).
Kalshi's taker fee is 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), with the price in dollars and the order total rounded up to the next cent. One contract pays 2¢ at 50¢ and 1¢ at 99¢; on a 100-contract order the fee falls to about 1.75¢ and 0.07¢ per contract. Kalshi's series record listed KXBTC15M with fee type "quadratic" and multiplier 1 on October 9, 2026, the standard taker-only schedule, so a resting maker order pays no fee on this series.
To break even you have to win at least as often as the price you pay, in cents, plus the fee: a 96¢ contract needs 96% before fees and 97% on a one-contract order. At 99¢ a one-contract order's 1¢ fee equals the whole possible profit. The fee calculator works out any price and size.
Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market open to US residents in most states. Its help center says: "On Kalshi, you are always trading against another member of the platform, not the exchange itself." Prices come from members' orders, and Kalshi charges the fee. Across 25,746 windows from January 10 to October 8, 2026, 49.83% settled Up, and in our logged windows the Kalshi ask tracked how often each side won, usually landing within a point or two of the outcome rate (calibration).
| Series | KXBTC15M, a new window every 15 minutes, 24/7 apart from Thursday 3 to 5 AM ET maintenance |
| Strike | 60-second BRTI average before the open, rounded to the cent |
| Settlement | 60-second BRTI average before the close; at least the strike = Yes (Up), tie included |
| Payout | $1.00 per winning contract, $0 for the losing side |
| Taker fee | 0.07 × C × P × (1 − P), order total rounded up to the cent; no maker fee on this series as checked October 9, 2026 |
| Breakeven | The price in cents, as a win rate, plus the fee |
| Data | Kalshi's public API (endpoints); our studies and open dataset |
For what traders try on these markets and what our data says about it, see Kalshi BTC 15-minute strategy. For how they compare with Polymarket's 5-minute Bitcoin markets, see Kalshi vs Polymarket.
Kalshi lists a new KXBTC15M market every 15 minutes. Yes (Up) pays $1 if the 60-second CF Benchmarks BRTI average before the close is at least the same average before the open; No (Down) pays $1 otherwise. You buy a side for 1 to 99 cents and pay a taker fee rounded up to the cent.
The simple average of 60 BRTI prints in the minute before the window opens, rounded to the cent. It normally equals the previous window's settlement value: 25,281 of 25,285 consecutive pairs from January 10 to October 8, 2026.
The market resolves Yes (Up), because the rule is 'at least' the strike. No window in our 25,317-window sample tied exactly, but about 1 in 117 finished within $1.
Yes, apart from Kalshi's scheduled maintenance on Thursdays from 3 to 5 AM ET.
A taker fee of 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up to the next cent per order: 2 cents on one contract at 50 cents and 1 cent at 99 cents. The series listed no maker fee when we checked on October 9, 2026.
Read the rules, check the data, and only then decide whether any feed is worth it.
Every signal in our BTC 15-minute feed goes into a public results log and a downloadable CSV, graded against Kalshi's official result, losses included, with nothing pulled. The same record is available as JSON from our read-only API.
This is a free trial that becomes an automatically renewing subscription. A payment card is required to start, and you are not charged today. Your trial runs 30 days. At the end of it your card is charged $4.99 and then $4.99 every month until you cancel. Cancel any time before the trial ends and you pay nothing: use your account page, send /manage in the bot, or email [email protected]. Cancelling later stops future renewals at the end of the current paid month and does not refund it. No refunds except as required by law. By starting a trial you authorize these recurring charges and agree to the Terms and Privacy Policy. Signals are informational and for entertainment only, are not financial or betting advice, and any single signal can lose 100% of your stake. Must be 18+ (some platforms require 21+). If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
These are 15-minute binary prediction-market contracts. Any single window can lose 100% of your stake. They settle on a 60-second index average, not on the exchange chart you may be watching. At high prices a loss costs many times what a win pays, and Kalshi's fee raises the win rate you need above the price. Nothing on this page is financial, investment, or betting advice.
Past performance does not guarantee future results. Trade only with money you can afford to lose. Must be 18+ or of legal age where you live. If gambling is a problem for you, call 1-800-GAMBLER.