📖 Quick Start

How to Use DegenHedge Alerts

From Telegram notification to placing a trade in under 60 seconds. Works whether you're brand new to prediction markets or just new to us.

1 What You Need

Set up once, then forget about it.

For BTC Signals

An account on Kalshi (15-minute windows) and/or Polymarket (5-minute windows). Both are regulated prediction markets where you buy YES/NO contracts on whether BTC will close a window UP or DOWN.

For NBA Alerts

An account on Polymarket. NBA game markets are binary contracts: buy YES on a team, it pays $1.00 if they win. You can also use any traditional sportsbook (DraftKings, FanDuel, etc.) — the signal tells you which team has edge, you place the bet wherever you have an account.

Telegram

All alerts come via Telegram. Install it on your phone with notifications on. After subscribing, you'll link your Telegram to your DegenHedge account with the /link command.

2 Anatomy of an Alert

Every line means something. Here's what you're looking at.
BTC Signal Example
🚨 SIGNAL: DOWN (Polymarket 5-min)
──────────────────
📊 Model confidence: 88.3% DOWN
💰 Market price (DOWN): $0.24
📐 Gap: +27% (model vs market)
⏱ Window closes in: 52 seconds
──────────────────
Act fast. Suggested: buy DOWN on Polymarket.
Model confidence: 88.3% DOWN
Our model says there's an 88.3% chance BTC closes this window DOWN.
Market price (DOWN): $0.24
The DOWN contract costs $0.24 on Polymarket right now. If DOWN wins, it pays $1.00.
Gap: +27%
Model says 88%, market says 24%. That 64-point gap is your edge. The market hasn't repriced yet.
Window closes in: 52 seconds
You have less than a minute to act. BTC windows are fast.
NBA Signal Example
🏀 SIGNAL: Lakers (NBA In-Game)
──────────────────
📊 Model confidence: 78.5% Lakers
💰 Polymarket (Lakers): $0.55
📐 Gap: +24% (model vs market)
🏟 Score: PHX 45 - LAL 52 (3rd Quarter, 18 min left)
──────────────────
Strong edge on Lakers. Check the live price on Polymarket — odds shift fast in-game.
Model confidence: 78.5% Lakers
Given the score and time remaining, our Goldman-Stern model gives LAL a 78.5% win probability.
Polymarket (Lakers): $0.55
LAL YES contracts cost $0.55 on Polymarket. If LAL wins, each contract pays $1.00.
Gap: +24%
Model says 78%, Polymarket says 55%. The market hasn't caught up to the scoring run.
Score + time
LAL leads by 7 with 18 min left. You can verify this is real before you trade.

3 BTC Signals: Step by Step

Speed matters. These windows close in minutes.
1
Get the alert on Telegram. You'll see the direction (UP or DOWN), the model's confidence, the current market price, and how long until the window closes.
2
Open Kalshi or Polymarket. Navigate to the BTC price prediction market. On Kalshi, these are "Bitcoin Above/Below $X" markets. On Polymarket, search "BTC" and find the current 5-minute window.
3
Check the live price. The alert shows you the price at signal time, but it may have shifted by the time you look. If the contract still costs less than what the model says it's worth, the edge is still there.
4
Buy the contract. If the signal says DOWN and the DOWN contract is $0.24, you're paying $0.24 to win $1.00. Place a market order for speed, or a limit order at your target price.
5
Wait for settlement. The window closes automatically. If the signal was correct, your contract settles at $1.00. If not, it settles at $0.00. No action needed — it's automatic.

Timing: Kalshi windows are 15 minutes (you typically have ~2 min after the signal). Polymarket windows are 5 minutes (~45 seconds). Act fast on Polymarket — set up your account and know where the market is before your first signal.

4 NBA Alerts: Step by Step

More time to act. Games last hours, not minutes.
1
Get a pregame alert ~10 min before tip-off. This shows you which games are coming up and where Polymarket has each team priced. No action needed yet.
2
Get an in-game signal. During the game, when the model detects a gap between the live score situation and Polymarket's price, you'll get an alert with the team, model confidence, Polymarket price, and gap.
3
Open Polymarket. Go to "Pro Basketball" and find the game. The market shows two outcomes — each team's name with a YES price.
4
Check the live price. The alert said "Polymarket (Lakers): $0.55" — is it still around $0.55? If it's already jumped to $0.78, the market caught up and the edge is gone. Move on.
5
Buy YES on the called team. If the price is still close to what the alert showed, buy YES. Each contract pays $1.00 if the team wins. Your profit is $1.00 minus what you paid.
6
Wait for the game to end. When the final buzzer sounds, your contracts settle automatically. WIN = $1.00 per contract. LOSS = $0.00. You'll also get a result alert from the bot.

Using a sportsbook instead? The signal works the same way — the called team is the one with edge. Place a moneyline bet on that team through DraftKings, FanDuel, or wherever you have an account. The Polymarket price in the alert is for reference; your sportsbook odds will differ slightly.

5 Bet Sizing

This is where most people go wrong.

Risk 1-5% of your bankroll per signal. If you have $500 to trade with, bet $5-25 per signal. Not $100. Not $250.

Why? Because even at 90%+ win rates, you will hit losing streaks. Five losses in a row at 10% WR happens roughly once every 100,000 trades — but three in a row happens about once every 1,000. If you're betting 20% of your bankroll, three losses wipes 50% of your account.

The math works over many bets with consistent sizing. Not over a few bets with aggressive sizing.

Quick Reference

  • $100 bankroll: $1-5 per signal
  • $500 bankroll: $5-25 per signal
  • $1,000 bankroll: $10-50 per signal
  • $5,000 bankroll: $50-250 per signal

If you can't afford to lose 5 bets in a row at your chosen size, you're betting too much.

6 What Works and What Doesn't

Do This

  • Check the live price before trading
  • Stick to 1-5% bet sizing
  • Trust the system over 50+ bets
  • Skip if the price already moved
  • Keep Polymarket/Kalshi open during game nights
  • Read the result alerts — track your own P&L

Don't Do This

  • Don't bet more after a win ("let it ride")
  • Don't chase losses with bigger bets
  • Don't add your gut feeling to the model
  • Don't quit after 3 losses — that's variance
  • Don't trade with money you can't lose
  • Don't assume any single signal is a lock

Ready to start?

Subscribe, link your Telegram, and your first alert arrives automatically.

See Plans & Subscribe