Everything you need to convert.

⚠️ One NFL number is citable, it is a backtest, and it loses money.

The live record is zero and the log is still empty. Not one NFL alert has fired, so there is no NFL live win rate, no entry price, no streak and no sample size. Say it plainly: "NFL has no published track record. It is still empty: Week 1's opener produced no alert at all. The public NFL record starts with the first alert that fires, and none has yet — and when one does, it goes into the log, losses included." Post the public results log so people can watch it fill in. Nothing you post may date the record to kickoff or to a named day, or call it live and filling in: kickoff has passed, the log is still empty, and every one of those constructions is now false.

The one citable cell, re-cut 2026-09-10. The model gate shipped from 0.80 to 0.70 today, so the cell that describes the product changed with it. Paste this paragraph whole or leave the number out — there is no short version: "In a 2025-26 season backtest, at the same gate the live bot now ships with, entering two minutes after detection the way the bot really runs, the model won 60.9% of 225 graded signals at a 62.5 cent average entry. A 62.5 cent entry has to win 62.5% of the time to break even, so the backtest finishes 1.6 points below breakeven before Kalshi fees, and further below after them. It is not a winning backtest. The delay-two grid has sixteen cells, it is negative on average, and its one positive cell is the model-0.80 gate the bot just left, so the cell that describes today's product is one of the fifteen negative ones and was not picked for looking good. The public NFL record starts with the first alert that fires, and none has yet." The full replay, the interval, the delay decay and the EV arithmetic are on the research page; link it wherever the format allows a link, and leave the EV number there.

You may: quote that cell only in a format with room for the whole paragraph above — the word backtest in the same sentence, "60.9% of 225 graded signals" with the 62.5¢ average entry beside it, the explicit subtraction that puts it 1.6 points below the breakeven that entry implies before fees, the sixteen-cell sentence with both of its halves, and "the public NFL record starts with the first alert that fires, and none has yet." A tweet, a one-line DM and a spoken hook do not have that room, so in those formats link the research page and quote no number at all. Never present it as a winning number: it is not one, before fees or after.

You may not: drop the word backtest, the entry price, the graded denominator or the below-breakeven subtraction — the shortfall is not optional in any format, because it is the harder statement and it is the one we make; let the fired count stand in as the denominator — the split is "228 fired, 225 graded, 137-88", and 225 is the only denominator that survives beside 137-88; present it as a live record, a streak, or "our results"; date the start of the record to kickoff or to any named day; round or restyle it ("nearly 61%", "6 in 10", "about 61%"); drop either half of the sixteen-cell sentence; quote any other cell, gate or delay from that study, and in particular never the retired model-0.80 row, its win rate or its entry price; state a margin, an EV number, or any profit, income or "+EV" claim, in copy or in a footnote — a footnote is still copy, and the EV number stays on the research page; blend it with the MLB, NBA or BTC numbers; or put an MLB or BTC figure beside the NFL pitch where it reads as NFL performance.

Where you have room for a footnote, add the caveat: one season is a thin sample; measured per game rather than per signal, the same cell wins 62.2% of 119 games with a 95% interval running 53.2% to 70.4%. Do not subtract the 62.5¢ entry from that game rate — the entry price is the average across the 225 graded signals, a different population, and the difference between the two is not a margin. The one thing that is not wrong with this cell is selection: we ship it because it is the gate the bot runs, not because it looked good, and it did not. A footnote is copy like any other, so it carries the same bans — no EV number, no margin, no profit claim. Every post carrying your code, your link or comped access also carries an FTC disclosure: see the compliance section.

⚠️ Never pitch BTC as an edge or an opportunity.

Do the price math first. These alerts fire at a 91.82¢ average entry (96¢ median), and at a 91.82¢ entry you have to be right 91.82% of the time just to get your money back. The logged rate is 91.3% across 9,750 priced signals, which sits essentially at that breakeven before fees, and below it after them. A high win rate on contracts that already cost almost a dollar is not an edge, and quoting the rate without the price turns it into one.

You may: describe what the feed does (a fast alert about 2 minutes before a 15-minute window resolves), quote 91.3% only with "across 9,750 priced signals at a 91.82¢ average entry, 96¢ median" in the same sentence, and say out loud that wins are small and a single loss costs nearly the full stake.

You may not: call it an edge, a mispricing you can profit from, "free money", "the cleanest edge on Kalshi", or any variant that implies the rate beats the price. No margin, EV, profit or income claim, ever.

Also banned everywhere, all markets: that the line is slow, that the book has not caught up, that the market has not repriced, that we time or catch a lag, or that the gap closes. We instrumented our own order book and the alerted side does not measurably move — median 0.0000¢ out to five minutes, flat spread, rising depth. Pitch the detection and the public log, never a price move. Retired figures, banned in every channel: every NFL figure this pack carried before 10 September 2026 — the model-0.80 gate the bot no longer runs, in every form, including its win rate, its graded count, its entry price and its EV; and the older BTC pair, a higher headline rate and a larger signal count that counted rows carrying no price at all. We do not restate the digits here, because a retired number outlives the sentence attached to it. If an old draft or a post still carries one, replace it with the re-cut NFL cell in the NFL callout above or the corrected BTC line above, the same day, without repeating the old number. Retired dates go with them: anything that dates the start of the NFL record to kickoff or to a named day, or calls it live and filling in, is now false — kickoff has passed and the log is still empty.

⛔ Do not quote any NBA number.

There is no publishable NBA win rate. The NBA log covers one partial season and the entry prices behind it are being re-derived from the live pipeline, so we do not publish a rate and neither may you. That includes the win rate that used to sit in this pack: it is retired, and any post still carrying an NBA number should be edited or taken down. Terms § 2.3(f) and Appendix A ¶ A-6 make this a flat ban, not a caveat.

The only permitted statement: "NBA alerts open at tip-off in late October." Point people at the waitlist, not at a checkout — the NBA payment links are inactive until tip-off, so a link you post now cannot convert and cannot pay you a bounty.